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NHS Gompertz Fit peak demand forecast data as at 10th January 2021

This page forecasts when each NHS Trust will have peak Covid admissions. The calculation is done by fitting admissions to a Gompertz Curve. The data is slightly out of date. Some adjustments have been made between areas for transfers, but not enough.
Data last date 10/1/2021 This table reports a forecast based upon fitting hospital admissions to a gompertz curve starting in November. Xmas will skew these figures, but it is a mechanism for forecasting demand.
Peak admissionsPeak Date
Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust813.01.2021353
Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust2529.01.2021585
Salisbury NHS Foundation Trust1320.01.2021542
Dorset County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust827.01.2021280
East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust2302.01.20211205
Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust3421.01.20211349
University Hospitals Dorset NHS Foundation Trust2505.01.20211293
Essex Partnership University NHS Foundation Trust629.12.2020293
South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust513.01.2021178
Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust325.12.2020136
Oxleas NHS Foundation Trust212.12.2020111
University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust4714.01.20212096
Surrey and Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust3613.01.20211662
Norfolk Community Health and Care NHS Trust605.01.2021287
Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust1407.01.2021694
East Suffolk and North Essex NHS Foundation Trust4109.01.20212156
James Paget University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust1509.01.2021733
Isle of Wight NHS Trust1422.01.2021459
King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust13628.01.20214290
Hertfordshire Community NHS Trust328.12.2020132
Norfolk and Norwich University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust2607.01.20211336
North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust1503.01.2021738
Portsmouth Hospitals University National Health Service Trust5006.01.20212632
Milton Keynes University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust2604.01.20211363
Mid and South Essex NHS Foundation Trust9908.01.20215203
Barnet, Enfield and Haringey Mental Health NHS Trust215.12.2020100
Royal Surrey County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust1202.01.2021620
Brighton and Sussex University Hospitals NHS Trust2003.01.20211050
Croydon Health Services NHS Trust3105.01.20211612
Great Western Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust1503.01.2021766
Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust6104.01.20213312
Sussex Community NHS Foundation Trust926.12.2020484
North Middlesex University Hospital NHS Trust4013.01.20211882
The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, King's Lynn, NHS Foundation Trust1603.01.2021837
North East London NHS Foundation Trust930.12.2020473
Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust2115.01.2021945
Southern Health NHS Foundation Trust524.12.2020261
East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust5403.01.20213015
Chesterfield Royal Hospital NHS Foundation Trust1604.01.2021826
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust303.01.2021120
West Hertfordshire Hospitals NHS Trust3006.01.20211579
Kingston Hospital NHS Foundation Trust2106.01.20211080
Worcestershire Acute Hospitals NHS Trust2603.01.20211388
The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust3404.01.20211831
Royal Berkshire NHS Foundation Trust2313.01.20211159
The Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust4202.01.20212325
Sandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust3403.01.20211853
Sherwood Forest Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust2202.01.20211193
Ashford and St Peter's Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust1508.01.2021743
County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust4503.01.20212459
Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust524.12.2020257
Bedfordshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust4203.01.20212242
Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children NHS Foundation Trust215.12.202093
University Hospitals of Derby and Burton NHS Foundation Trust6403.01.20213508
Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust523.12.2020261
Royal United Hospitals Bath NHS Foundation Trust1631.12.2020872
Warrington and Halton Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust1801.01.2021978
Countess of Chester Hospital NHS Foundation Trust2131.12.20201151
Mid Cheshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust1708.01.2021872
Harrogate and District NHS Foundation Trust501.01.2021229
Cornwall Partnership NHS Foundation Trust227.12.202071
North Bristol NHS Trust2127.12.20201179
Walsall Healthcare NHS Trust2029.12.20201121
University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust2229.12.20201215
Medway NHS Foundation Trust5231.12.20202970
Wye Valley NHS Trust725.12.2020380
East London NHS Foundation Trust627.12.2020300
Birmingham Women's and Children's NHS Foundation Trust416.12.2020220
Somerset NHS Foundation Trust1130.12.2020588
Yeovil District Hospital NHS Foundation Trust903.01.2021466
London North West University Healthcare NHS Trust4907.01.20212535
South Warwickshire NHS Foundation Trust1129.12.2020581
St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust3808.01.20211955
Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust4213.01.20211964
North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Foundation Trust2931.12.20201622
East Cheshire NHS Trust1028.12.2020535
Berkshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust318.12.2020146
Dorset Healthcare University NHS Foundation Trust416.12.2020220
Cumbria, Northumberland, Tyne and Wear NHS Foundation Trust214.12.2020102
Royal Brompton & Harefield NHS Foundation Trust327.12.2020131
Hounslow and Richmond Community Healthcare NHS Trust211.12.2020105
United Lincolnshire Hospitals NHS Trust3925.12.20202289
Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust3506.01.20211849
The Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust1728.12.2020945
Kettering General Hospital NHS Foundation Trust1601.01.2021859
St Helens and Knowsley Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust1205.01.2021603
University Hospitals of North Midlands NHS Trust6431.12.20203656
Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust2631.12.20201449
Kent Community Health NHS Foundation Trust831.12.2020410
University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust4930.12.20202796
Hampshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust1906.01.2021973
Gloucestershire Health and Care NHS Foundation Trust524.12.2020257
Derbyshire Community Health Services NHS Foundation Trust322.12.2020141
Black Country Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust118.11.202059
University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust9203.01.20215107
George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust1030.12.2020533
North West Anglia NHS Foundation Trust2330.12.20201279
University Hospitals Plymouth NHS Trust804.01.2021401
The Newcastle Upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust1726.12.2020953
Central and North West London NHS Foundation Trust201.01.202161
Airedale NHS Foundation Trust1827.12.20201029
Southport and Ormskirk Hospital NHS Trust1127.12.2020609
Leicestershire Partnership NHS Trust416.12.2020212
Hull University Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust2931.12.20201622
York Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust1829.12.2020993
South Tees Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust2528.12.20201388
Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust2130.12.20201177
Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust3627.12.20202096
Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust2022.12.20201175
University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay NHS Foundation Trust1025.12.2020558
Stockport NHS Foundation Trust1229.12.2020647
Northern Devon Healthcare NHS Trust617.12.2020337
Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust4431.12.20202479
The Rotherham NHS Foundation Trust2025.12.20201166
Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust3031.12.20201689
South Tyneside and Sunderland NHS Foundation Trust3101.01.20211747
Calderdale and Huddersfield NHS Foundation Trust1730.12.2020949
Nottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust312.12.2020151
Doncaster and Bassetlaw Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust2826.12.20201629
Pennine Acute Hospitals NHS Trust3331.12.20201862
Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust3427.12.20201969
Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust2324.12.20201349
Mid Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust3626.12.20202107
Anglian Community Enterprise Community Interest Company (ace Cic)221.01.202139
Gateshead Health NHS Foundation Trust924.12.2020484
Bolton NHS Foundation Trust1727.12.2020943
Tameside and Glossop Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust1124.12.2020605
Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust3503.01.20211949
Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust2524.12.20201465
Shropshire Community Health NHS Trust210.12.202089
Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust209.12.202094
Tees, Esk and Wear Valleys NHS Foundation Trust228.11.2020114
Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Trust8414.01.20213794
West Suffolk NHS Foundation Trust2111.01.2021984
Frimley Health NHS Foundation Trust6007.01.20212984
The Princess Alexandra Hospital NHS Trust3124.01.20211160
East and North Hertfordshire NHS Trust2108.01.20211072
University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust2516.01.20211150
Whittington Health NHS Trust2212.01.20211014
Homerton University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust3112.01.20211458
Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust4404.01.20212338
The Hillingdon Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust2403.01.20211290
Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust3906.01.20212036
Dartford and Gravesham NHS Trust2802.01.20211509
Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS Trust3830.12.20202128
Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust303.01.2021117
Epsom and St Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust3005.01.20211588
Barts Health NHS Trust9106.01.20214805
Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust3511.01.20211764
West London NHS Trust602.01.2021289
University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust2501.01.20211380
Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust401.01.2021173
Barnsley Hospital NHS Foundation Trust2831.12.20201566
Royal Devon and Exeter NHS Foundation Trust2328.12.20201317
Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust3328.12.20201874
East Kent Hospitals University NHS Foundation Trust5131.12.20202896
North West Boroughs Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust203.01.202162
City Health Care Partnership Cic420.12.2020196
Herefordshire and Worcestershire Health and Care NHS Trust523.12.2020261
Wirral University Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust1330.12.2020693
Lincolnshire Community Health Services NHS Trust308.12.2020170
Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh NHS Foundation Trust1924.12.20201109
Northamptonshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust227.12.202068
Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital NHS Foundation Trust207.12.2020109
Rotherham Doncaster and South Humber NHS Foundation Trust320.12.2020126
Northern Lincolnshire and Goole NHS Foundation Trust2225.12.20201274
Midlands Partnership NHS Foundation Trust308.12.2020157
Livewell Southwest221.12.202068
The Christie NHS Foundation Trust121.11.202033
Birmingham Community Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust211.12.202092
Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust630.12.2020296
NHS Nightingale Hospital North West031.12.20190
North Staffordshire Combined Healthcare NHS Trust116.11.202024

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