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Treasury Economic Model

My research team has been rummaging around the Treasury Economic Model. It is an interesting model based upon some Fortran routines which look at about 600 variables based upon quarterly calculations.

Variables I am particularly interested in are
  • 0411 EOIL - Offshore Oil and Gas Employment
  • 0801 TDOIL Total Domestic Demand for oil
  • 0802 NSGVA - GVA in North Sea oil & gas extraction
  • 0803 XOIL - Exports of oil (volume)
  • 0804 PXOIL -AVI for exports of oil Index
  • 0805 MOIL - Imports of crude oil and oil products
  • 0806 PMOIL - AVI for imports of oil Index
  • 0807 NSGTP - North Sea Gross Trading Profits
  • 0809 PBRENT - Brent crude oil price ($ per barrel)
  • 1014 TXFUEL - Hydrocarbon oils duty receipts

Alan Greenspan did say that pure economic theory ignores the price of oil (and availability). It is nice to see that the Treasury does not.

I haven't as yet got the right instructions on how to run the model although I have also got another model from someone else, but I will give it a few runthroughs on the basis of certain reasonable assumptions once I have.


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