John Hemming's Web Log

This story is about a dispute between Russia and Ukraine. This has the potential to affect UK gas supplies through the interconnector. It has the potential to reduce our supplies by 25 mcm/d. That, of course, would cut into Medium Term Storage and possibly short term storage. LTS withdrawals are continuing apace even though demand is relatively low for the temperature at about 370 mcm/d. I have set up another blog at GasIssues.blogspot.com to transfer that particular issue to the other blog. This will enable me to avoid one issue dominating this blog. To be fair if we do hit the buffers on this (which I would say is still a 50:50 chance) then it will have a massive impact on the UK. Even now substantial economic damage is being done. Hence I make no apologies for being concerned about the tightness of the gas supply demand balance even though I am still doing a lot of other things.

Data Protection Q: To ask the Minister of State, Department for Constitutional Affairs if she will increase individuals' rights under the Data Protection Act 1998. (John Hemming) A: The Data Protection Act 1998, which accurately reflects the requirements of the Data Protection Directive (Directive 95/46/EC), puts in place a firm regulatory structure to ensure the legitimate processing of individuals' personal data. It provides substantial rights for individuals in respect of their personal data, including the right of subject access, the right to prevent processing likely to cause damage or distress, the right to prevent processing for the purposes of direct marketing, rights in relation to automated decision-making, compensation for failure to comply with certain of the Act's requirements, and the right to have data rectified, blocked, erased or otherwise destroyed in certain circumstances. The Freedom of Information Act 2000 also extended individuals' right of subject...

This is the chart of long term storage. The real problems arise whenever either of the safety monitors is breached. Short term storage (LNG mainly) allows the handling of peaks in demand. It can run at about 47 mcm/d for about 3 days. Medium term can run at 28 mcm/d for (now) 15 days and long term can run (now) for 70 days at 45 mcm/d. The safety monitors exist at 22% of LTS, 13% of MTS and 22% of STS to ensure that if the system cannot cope with demand that it shuts down sensibly. If domestic customers were ever to be cut off that would a) Cause major hardship ... and b) Take some time to reverse as you cannot just switch the gas back on again (pilot lights and all that). Hence the system is designed to ensure that whatever happens we should not have to do that. This means (see earlier) that big consumers are cut off first (such as the electricity generators). The real problem is that during Winter although we can use LTS for 70 days we should not be having to use it now. My gue...

The Home Office claim that their automated systems can recognise a 4 year old from photographs of that 4 year old with their mouth closed and eyes open when they were 2 weeks old. I accept the argument that babies should have passports (although we coped for centuries with children travelling on their parents' passports). However, I cannot believe that it is necessary to be as picky about the photograph of the child. In the mean time over 13% of passport applications are rejected because of the photo not satisfying the government's new conditions.

Gas Production/Supplies Q: To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry if he will assess the merits of stipulating a requirement for gas wholesalers to contract for a minimum supply percentage from outside the UK's own resources to guarantee supply levels through interconnectors and liquid natural gas shipments. (John Hemming) A: The regulatory/commercial framework for the gas supply industry, overseen by Ofgem, gives strong financial incentives for companies to have sufficient gas supplies, on a day-by-day basis, to meet their contractual commitments. It is in companies' interests to source gas supplies from a diverse range of sources and supply routes. (Malcolm Wicks, Minister of State (Energy), Department of Trade and Industry) Gas Production/Supplies Q: To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what estimate he has made of the total imported gas capacity in millions of cubic metres which will be available per average day in each quarter from Q1 2006 to Q...

Child Protection Q: To ask the Secretary of State for Education and Skills how many children have been placed on the child protection registers by child protection committees as a result of an allegation of Munchhausen Syndrome by Proxy in each year since 2002; and how many of those children were taken into care. (John Hemming) A: The Department for Education and Skills does not collect this information, as 'Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy' is not a recommended category for registration on child protection registers, nor is it a ground for the making of care orders under section 31 of the Children Act 1989. (Maria Eagle, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Children and Families) Department for Education and Skills) Silent Telephone Calls Q: To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry in what circumstances those making silent telephone calls will not be subject to action from Ofcom following Ofcom's publication of a new policy on silent calls. (John Hemming) A: The...

One explanation many gave was that they were afraid that health visitors would call in the social services, leading to the possibility they would lose their children. The extract is from a BBC story (see link) about mothers fearing the involvement of social services. There was an important change in court procedures which started on 1st November which allows people who have been through the family courts to tell others (but not the media) of the details of their case. The problem is that we have ended up in a surreal world where when allegations are made without evidence that there is a need for the subject of the allegations to prove their innocence. If they do not prove their innocence and then continue to deny the allegation they suffer, if they accept the allegation they suffer. Eric Pickles has put down an EDM about this issue. There is a need for a wider scrutiny of what is done in the name of child protection. In the mean time we have the first "high level" risk of...

This winter seems to building into a winter of discontent. The health service is facing substantial problems. The government's solution seems to be to reorganise it. We in Birmingham face either 1 PCT or 3 PCTs. In essence we are going back to a single health authority for the city - a situation much like it used to be about 10 years ago. The withdrawals from storage appear to have ebbed for the weekend with demand running about 20 mcm lower and hence the withdrawals runnning about 20 mcm lower. It remains that domestic customers are last to be cut off and that we will have enough gas to keep that going. However, any gas shipper (utility) short of gas is going to have to pay a system price something like 4 times what they would have done previously. Actual demand yesterday is reported at 351 and forecast for today is 352 (mcm), but Monday jumps to a forecast of 374 - which should take withdrawals from long term storage back up to maximum. At 1pm, however, the forecast flows i...

What was interesting about today was that the 7 day rolling average of extracts from storage which includes last weeks outy/inny now predicts a number of days less than 100 for breaching the safety monitors. The feeling I have is that people believed the National Grid's Winter Outlook 2005's prediction of 303 from Beach 42 from the interconnector and 13 from Grain. The fact is that Beach and Grain together have only managed to peak at 302 (on 23rd) and the interconnector struggles to get close to 42 even on nominations let alone physical flow. The sums of money are quite big and I expect some large sums of money to be made and lost when the dust settles. I will be interested to see what the demand is over the weekend. Weekend demand is about 20 mcm less than weekdays, but cold weather makes a real difference. If beach manages to keep up to the 300 that it hit on Wednesday it will be doing well. However, in cold weather we risk that all the supplies including storage cannot m...

Thursday's withdrawal eased slightly to a net 338, but Friday's nominations (remembering that the day does not finish until 5.59am tomorrow morning) are running at 445 at Rough. One key figure will be Today's demand. Today is a colder day which will have higher demand. The output from Beach and Grain has tipped up to just over 303 (still under the National Grid's forecast).

I have been that busy with matters (specifically relating to Gas) that I have not managed to talk about the launch of the IESP. I held a meeting with various stakeholders inc Chemical Industries Association, National Farmers Union, Energy Institute, Ofgem, New Energy Foundation and Powerswitch to review the fossil fuel situation. This has been planned before it turned out there was gas calamity. It was agreed that we should form the IESP to challenge the assumptions behind figures provided by various players (Government, Regulators, National Grid etc etc). It is very clear that the figures provided as part of the Winter Outlook 2005 were substantially in error. Not only that but it was a shock. It was such as shock that it appears that Malcolm Wicks did not even know on Wednesday. One of the things that arose during the meeting was that the DTI were refusing to provide information to Ofgem about gas field problems. In the circumstances it sounds totally insane. That is probably b...

The link is to hansard for my supplementary question to my urgent question about gas. Basically the situation is that the National Grid are taking gas out of Long Term Storage at the maximum rate. (and did so on Tuesday as well). I quoted the figures for Sat/Sun/Mon. This is not sustainable and if all else remains equal (viz temperatures remain the same, supply is the same) then we breach the safety monitors and have to start shutting down parts of the network by cutting off people on interruptible supplies (industrial users) in late December early January and keeping them off until March. Now in my 45 years of life it has generally got colder through that period rather than warmer and I (and the Met office) would expect that. Hence, unless there is a really good reason to see otherwise, that is likely to happen. I have now managed to source figures as to the detailed inputs into the system. Our new LNG system in the Isle of Grain that is supposed to produce 13 mcm/d peaked at 6 and ...

Predictive Diallers (DCMS) Q: To ask the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport how many calls were made from call centres in her Department in 2004–05 using predictive diallers; how many such calls resulted in contact being made with the recipient without a Government agent available to talk to them; and what assessment she has made of the likely impact of Ofcom's policy on silent calls on the use of predictive diallers in departmental call centres.(John Hemming) A: My Department does not operate any call centres. (David Lammy, parliamentary Under-Secretary (Culture), Department of Culture, Media and Sport). Forensic Services Q: To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what assessment he has made of whether the forensic services have sufficient capacity available to facilitate the investigation of terrorist offences; and if he will make a statement.(John Hemming) A: Forensic services called upon to assist terrorism investigations come from a number of organ...

Police Q: To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department if he will revise the Police and Criminal Evidence Code to facilitate the re-interview of terrorist detainees after charge; and if he will make a statement. (John Hemming) A: During Report Stage on the Terrorism Bill on 9 November 2005, my right hon. Friend, the Home Secretary agreed to look at whether it might be possible to extend the circumstances in which post charge interviewing can be used in terrorist cases. We are currently reviewing existing legislation in consultation with the police and the CPS. (Hazel Blears, Minister of State (Policing, Security and Community Safety), Home Office) Contingency Planning (Power Supplies) Q: To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what range of scenarios the Government Chief Scientific Adviser is considering in terms of oil and gas reserves for contingency planning purposes.(John Hemming) A: Currently, the Office of Science and Technology, headed by the Government C...

With prices rocketing to £1.70p the market knows there is a problem. On Monday 231 GWh were released from medium term storage and 496 GWh from Long Term Storage. This is actually a faster rate of release from Long Term Storage than is the maximum as defined by the National Grid. This equates to roughly 66 million cubic metres in the day. This shows a particularly worrying trend as it appears that the system is having difficulty maintaining sufficient supplies for demand. Extrapolating from these figures and making the assumption that the reserves do not go below the safety level, this is only sustainable for 43 days. However, making the assumption that the 3 day rolling average of 604 GWh is applicable then this would allow 51 days. Neither of these figures, however, take us into the peak month for gas usage which is February. I accept that about 10 mcm has been injected into the pipes, but it still remains that over 50 mcm extra was taken from storage. Demand is expected to g...

I went to a meeting with Andy Hayman of the Met last week. I have also discussed matters with a number of other people involved in the Criminal Justice system. It does appear that the key issue that drove the claim that 90 days detention without charge is needed is the idea of preventing an ambush defence where suspects don't comment at all during the pre-trial period and then generate a defence at the trial. The difference in the cautions used pre (and at) charge and post-charge arises mainly from Section 34 b) of the 1994 Criminal Justice and Public Order Act. It is not an entirely full reading of the act and it may not be the case that primary legislation needs to change to handle this, but probably such a change would be useful. I am still awaiting responses on this from a number of groups of people, but I think this could be a route to avoid detaining people without charge for even 28 days.

Actually no. Although if you take forwards the extraction rates of an average of 431 GWh from Long Term storage then we only have 73 days of gas left in storage at that rate. Between 50 and 70 million cubic metres of gas is being taken from storage each day at the moment. Demand has jumped recently This is a graph of demand from the National Grid. Clearly as to be expected gas demand has jumped massively in November. A lot of gas (11 days of total British Consumption) is stored by Centrica and is the Long Term Storage. If this runs short then we would be short say about 60 mcm a day which is about 1/6th of total usage. A serious problem, but not strictly "running out" of gas. Press Release John Hemming MP has written to Malcolm Wicks MP to ask him to identify what urgent action the government will be taking given that current extract rates from storage predict that we could run out of stored natural gas by the end of February 2006. An analysis released today by Energy Ca...

A cross-party move to scrap the deal whereby Cabinet Ministers can get 1/4 of their salary tax free every time they resign has been launched with the tabling of a motion in the House of Commons by John Hemming MP. "The Government", he said, "is planning to cut redundancy payments made to people over 41 next year. In the mean time they have a scheme whereby a cabinet minister gets £18,000 tax free for resigning. This arises from an act of parliament passed in 1991. The end result for David Blunkett is that he got more cash for resigning than he would have got had he stayed in post." "This situation is indefensible. Payments for loss of office should take into account how long the office has been held. If people are popping in and out of the revolving door that leads to the cabinet office then they should not get a generous golden goodbye every time they 'pass go'. Mr Hemming has tabled an Early Day Motion with the support of Lib Dem and Conservati...

Although John Healey MP says that "The Treasury has no call centres", the linked Departmental Report for 2004 from the Inland Revenue on Page 10 refers to their use of predictive dialling technology. The Inland Revenue is a non-ministerial department that reports to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Hence if I had asked him about his "departments" perhaps I would have received a different response. I have now asked the question again as "departments (including the Inland Revenue)"

NHS Finances Q: To ask the Secretary of State for Health what proportion of NHS bodies are insolvent. (John Hemming) A: No NHS organisations are insolvent. All national health service organisations have sufficient funding to pay their bills within a reasonable time. (Liam Byrne, Parliamentary Under-Secretary, Department of Health) At-risk Children Q: To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department how many children were on the at-risk register in each local authority in England at the end of each council year since 1989.(John Hemming) A: I have been asked to reply. The information requested is available from the Department's website at: hhttp://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/VOL/v000553/index.shtml (Beverley Hughes, Minister of State, Department for Education and Skills) Predictive Diallers (Treasury) Q: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many calls were made from call centres in his Department in 2004–05 using predictive diallers; how many such calls resulted in cont...