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Government hospital figures prove government covid infection figures are wrong

The government recently released detailed figures on the daily admissions into hospital NHS trusts for Covid. Previously only the government had this information, people more generally could not get it.

The importance of this is that it becomes possible to check whether the government's figures for infection area by area are accurate or not. Obvoiusly there is not a one to one relationship between local authorities, MSOAs and NHS trusts. Sometimes people go to a different hospital to their local one, but normally they go to the local one. Hence we can do a broad brush test for accuracy.

I have picked London because the government are claiming a uniformly high level of infection across the city. The evidence from hospital admissions is that there is infection, but many hospitals have not actually had much of a second wave (click on Guys below to see an example) and the remaining infection growth is in a limited number of trusts.

The table looks at growth from the peak in April in the last available week in December (ending 15th Dec) and also looks at the growth from the November average. It highlights that some areas have either a small second wave or almost no second wave.

Last Week ave is the average number of hospital admissions in that trust in the last available week. "Nov Ave" is the average number of admissions in November. 23/3-5/4 Ave is the average number of admissions during the peak period. If the average in the last week is more than the average in November the table says "growing". If the average in the last week is over 50% of the average in the March/April peak the table says "second wave". The detailed figures are available for each trust on the government website here: Figures for Barking

The lesson for government from this is that decisions should be taken based upon hospital data not on PCR testing (which is not giving reliable results).
Grow cf NovGrow cf AprilLast Week aveNov Ave23/3-5/4 ave
Barking Havering and Redbridgesecond wavegrowing80%34%30.4316.9322.64
Bartssecond wavegrowing158%-42%46.5718.0380.00
Central and NW Londonsmall or no second wavegrowing22%-95%0.290.235.43
Central London CHCsecond wavegrowing191%143%2.430.831.00
Chelsea and Westminstersmall or no second wavegrowing82% -71%13.007.1345.29
Croydonsmall or no second wavegrowing44%-56%10.577.3724.07
Epsom and St Helier second wavegrowing89%-18%15.148.0018.57
Great Ormond Stsmall or no second waveshrinking-39%-83%0.290.471.71
Guys and St Thomassmall or no second waveshrinking-14%-97%1.571.8350.57
East London NHS FTsecond wavegrowing376%5%2.860.602.71
Homertonsmall or no second wavegrowing135%-53%7.433.1715.79
Imperial Collegesmall or no second wavegrowing66%-76%11.296.8047.29
Kings Collegesmall or no second waveshrinking-40%-95%3.576.0066.00
Kingstonsecond wavegrowing48%-35%9.006.0713.79
Lewisham and Greenwichsecond wavegrowing185%48%21.297.4714.43
London North Westsmall or no second wavegrowing64%-79%21.4313.10104.14
Moorfield#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.000.000.00
Nightingale London#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.000.000.00
North East Londonsecond wavegrowing74%256%4.572.631.29
NE London Treatment Centre#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.000.000.00
North Middlesex University Hospitalsmall or no second wavegrowing 156%-68%10.434.0733.07
Oxleas#DIV/0!shrinking-87%#DIV/0!0.141.130.00
Royal Bromptonsmall or no second waveshrinking-20%-92%0.430.535.07
Royal free Londonsmall or no second wavegrowing58%-66%11.717.4334.07
Royal National Orthopaedicsmall or no second waveshrinking-100%-100%0.000.130.71
St Georgessmall or no second wavegrowing170%-67%16.005.9347.79
SW London and St Georgessecond wave#DIV/0!#DIV/0!967%2.290.000.21
Spire London East#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.000.000.00
South London and Maudsleysmall or no second wavegrowing757%-70%1.140.133.79
The Hillingdonsecond wavegrowing78%129%12.436.975.43
The Royal Marsdensmall or no second wavegrowing17%-65%0.430.371.21
University College Londonsecond wavegrowing98%-22%6.293.178.07
West London NHS Trustsecond wavegrowing109%67%2.861.371.71
Whittingtonsmall or no second wavegrowing114%-64%5.292.4714.57


Methodology: I have picked the list of acute trusts from here I have tried to balance back to the statistics from the government web site. I think I have missed out one or two smaller institutions that are treated by the government as being in the stats. The figures for 15th December balance completely, but overall there are some small variations under 1%. If someone can tell me what is missing then I will add it.

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