English Boundary Review Launched

The English Boundary review was launched today. These are the boundaries for the next General Election. We will know what they are in 2018. What is interesting is looking at the division of English seats as proposed in 2013 to now.

Region          2010 Seats 2013 Proposal   2016
Eastern         58              56              57
East Midlands   46              44              44
London          73              68              68
North East      29              26              25
North West      75              68              68 
South East *    83              81              81 
South West      55              53              53
West Midlands   59              54              53
Ykshire/Humber  54              50              50
(Isle of Wight)  1               2               2

I would expect this mainly to have arisen from individual registration. To be fair there is an issue about people who are properly multiply registered in more than one constituency in that they should really only count once in one of the seats for the quota and whether the constituency matches the quota. It should be possible to work out how many of these there are now. In the West Midlands I would expect quite a different set of proposals this time if the commission start at one side and go to the other side. That is simply because you would expect the middle to overlap by about 50%. However, only time will tell. From a partisan perspective with a drop in the West Midlands and North East and an increase in Eastern of one seat, this analysis might benefit the conservatives by a seat. The details, however, are what matter. However, with England dropping a seat it may end up as a net zero.

The electorate and quota figures for the West Midlands Metropolitan area are:
Birmingham       686,804  9.19 
Coventry         210,031  2.81 
Dudley           239,405  3.20 
Sandwell         215,484  2.88 
Solihull         153,873  2.06 
Walsall          186,960  2.50 
Wolverhampton    170,212  2.28 
WEST MIDLANDS  1,862,769  24.91 

Birmingham Constituencies
Birmingham, Edgbaston BC       62,795 -8,791 -12.28%
Birmingham, Erdington BC       62,552 -9,034 -12.62%
Birmingham, Hall Green BC      73,938 2,352 3.29%
Birmingham, Hodge Hill BC      73,173 1,587 2.22%
Birmingham, Ladywood BC        65,716 -5,870 -8.20%
Birmingham, Northfield BC      69,377 -2,209 -3.09%
Birmingham, Perry Barr BC      67,710 -3,876 -5.41%
Birmingham, Selly Oak BC       68,460 -3,126 -4.37%
Birmingham, Yardley BC         69,911 -1,675 -2.34%