John Hemming's Web Log

The latest information I have is that the report into the Compulsory Purchase Inquiry at The Swan will report by its final deadline of 16th February. I have already posted pictures of the stalled development. It is important to remember that this is affecting large numbers of people in the local area and also resulted in the first Contempt of Parliament motion for some time.

Harborough DC, Great Bowden and Arden LD Phil Knowles 966 (61.8; +12.1) Con 598 (38.2; -12.1) Majority 368 Turnout 27.87% LD gain from Con Percentage change is since May 2007 Taunton Deane BC, Lyngford LD Ben Swaine 390 (43.7; -0.7) Con 253 (28.4; +0.4) Lab 190 (21.3; -6.3) UKIP 59 (6.6; +6.6) Majority 137 Turnout 22.32% LD hold Percentage change is since May 2007 Rothwell TC, Tresham Con 361 (45.1) Lab 267 (33.4) English Democrats 88 (11.0) LD John Holt 84 (10.5) Majority 94 Turnout 28% Con hold

The question that will not be asked as part of the Chilcott Inquiry is why the rules of engagement in the southern no-fly zone were not changed to be the same as the northern no-fly zone. Had they done this to protect the Shi'a in the south from Ba'th oppression (which was the situation in the North) then the Shi'a could have taken control. The answer I found at the time was that the State Department did not want Iranian sympathisers to take control of the South. However, had that happened then Saddam Hussain would have lost control of the revenue of the country as the Kurds would have controlled the North (as they did) and the Shi'a the South.

The inadequate summary of the serious case review has been published. It does, however, include the following phrase: An important reason for that failure was the reluctance of Children’s Social Care Services to become involved; when they did, they do not act with sufficient purpose and do not complete the enquiries or assessments required by legislation and national standards. This is part of a common pattern where practitioners are known at times to avoid certain families because they are rough and time is spent dealing with other families where in practise no intervention is required.

Erewash BC, West Hallam and Dale Abbey Con 692 (51.4; -22.6) LD Gary Hamson 506 (37.6; +37.6) Lab 149 (11.1; -15.0) Majority 186 Turnout 33.81% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2007. Wakefield MBC, Airedale and Ferry Fryston Lab 1330 (49.9; +3.2) LD Paul Kirby 603 (22.6; +8.3) BNP 353 (13.3; -7.7) Con 275 (10.3; -7.7) Ind 102 (3.8; +3.8) Majority 727 Turnout 23.39% Lab hold Percentage change is since May 2008. Calne TC, Lickhill LD Michelle Pearce 331 (80.7) UKIP 79 (19.3) Majority 252 Turnout 13.9% LD gain from Con

The link is to today's Daily Mail story about Mark and Kelly in Ireland. I believe that the removal of their baby under an Irish EPO is in fact unlawful (that is advice they have had in Ireland). It looks like the local Health Board are acting at the instigation of Fife rather than making their own decisions. That is not actually lawful either.

I find it sad that the Cadbury takeover has now been agreed. This was cleared by the EU early this month. Hence we can now say that things have changed. There are obviously concerns about employment in Birmingham. However, we now need to look to the future. I would have preferred that Cadbury had remained independent. I am worried about what has been happening with private sector employment in Birmingham. LDV is another situation I am unhappy about, but that has no real similarities with Cadburys. It was people from the UK that did much to establish the structure of corporate governance in Germany. I do not think their structures are ones which prevent corporate success and I wonder if we should be looking for ways in which we can aim for long term success with our own corporate structures.

The BBC have a video of the debate here . What I find surprising is that Withers have not apologised. The last time this happened (in 1981) the firm concerned apologised by telegram before the motion was moved. There was a case with some similarities in Australia in 2006. The report can be found here . A law firm was found guilty of contempt for threatening defamation proceedings linked to a speech in parliament. Quoting from the findings: The Committee finds that the provision of information by Mr Cannard to Mr Leighton for use in the House, as part of his role in representing his constituents, was a proceeding in parliament and therefore protected by parliamentary privilege. The letter sent by Mills Oakley Lawyers to Mr Cannard constituted an attempt to interfere with the provision of this information and is therefore a breach of privilege. In relation to the question of whether the threat of adverse action against a constituent could be considered an improper means to influence ...

The following image is a key slide that looks at the effect of the Pre Budget Report on national public finances. The uncertainty is on the down side rather than the up side.

What is important about the motion about contempt of parliament is the underlying issue. This is a picture of Bakeman House in which there is a sheltered scheme for elderly residents. For many months it has been in the middle of a building site. An attempt has been made to gag me from speaking out about this issue. That is the subject of the motion which I will be proposing to the House tomorrow morning. We have had a number of problems recently with attempts to prevent freedom of speech. The fact that it has gone as far as an attempt to gag an MP from speaking about an issue in the House of Commons is wrong. We need to remember the people who live in Bakeman House (and the environs) and what effect this is having on them. I will not be gagged from speaking about this. The background is that this is the Swan Development in Yardley in which Tescos are trying to build a supermarket. However, there has been an objection to a Compulsory Purchase Order which has resulted in an Inquiry....

The universities have already been told that they face cuts in their HEFC grants next year of about 6%. That is a cash cut in the grant and nothing for inflation. There are some universities which are now on the edge financially and are likely to end up merging with others. One of the difficulties they face is that the financial cost of reorganising staffing is now sufficient to take out cash balances. This could push some of the Universities that are constituted as limited companies into administration. That is an issue that the government has to look carefully at. With appropriate support from government the education of the students need not face massive disruption. However, without that all sorts of disruption is likely to occur. Luckily Birmingham University is in a relatively strong financial position even though it is likely to find its grant of £130 Million cut by £6 Million next year. This is not just part of the pre-budget report, but also part of current financial plann...

Harrogate BC, Woodfield LD Greta Knight 688 (62.6; +4.1) Con 246 (22.4; +7.5) BNP 92 (8.4; -4.1) Lab 73 (6.6; -7.5) Majority 442 Turnout 26.99% LD hold Percentage change is since May 2007 Contact: Michael Newby 01423 542112 and 07767 761749 michael.newby@hotmail.co.uk Party defending seat: LD. Cause: Death.

Because it is cold the issue of gas supply has come to the fore again. In part that is because a free market works well when it is a buyers market, but with a sellers market weak market participants (aka people without a lot of money) tend to lose out. Even if we don't have any more complex crisis this winter we are still likely to see an increase on gas bills. The underlying problem is that the great variability of demand is linked to the weather. National Grid, who are responsible for managing the gas supply, calculate a figure as to what the weather is like from the perspective of gas demand. They then fit that to a chart which indicates how cold they think things are. This is the chart at today's date: You will note that in fact it is not as cold as a cold winter at the moment. They also measure the demand against predicted demand and here is another chart: Note on this that although it is not as cold as a "cold winter" the demand is as high as one would get ...

Some of the subtleties of freedom of speech are often missed out of public debate. It is important to maintain freedom of speech and with it the right to protest. At its most restrictive freedom of speech can be constrained so much that people are even prevented from revealing that they are restrained from talking about an issue. This is the "super injunction" or the Court Order what shall not speak its name. I am a strong believer in freedom of speech. That is why I oppose having secret court orders (although there may be an argument for a short time limited constraint on a particular order). However, at the same time I do not support the use of the freedom of speech to incite disorder. I took the view that the protests of the English Defence League in Birmingham were attempts to incite disorder. In the same way I see the proposals from Al Muhajiroun (aka Islam4UK) to march through Wootton Bassett as being an inflamatory attempt to incite disorder. I do think it is appr...

Its that time of year again. Normally I don't comment much about local issues on my weblog as we issue leaflets to residents in Yardley. However, I will do this on this occasion (as I did last year). Casework and the office The last case reference of 2009 was 13945. Previous year ends were: 2008: 9836, 2007: 7763, 2006: 5597. The number has increased in the last year. Casework is very important as not only can we resolve issues for people, but also I learn what is going wrong in the real world - as opposed to the Westminster bubble. There remain odd decisions made by the various governmental bodies although it does not seem to have got much worse over the year. The advice desert is also still an issue. The team has run smoothly without any big changes although we moved away from alternating people in London with Martin being now full time in London. Neil also continues to help with the APPGOPO. Yardley Bakeman House having been dealt with we now have Wheeldon house being improv...

The link is to a summary of the research on adoptive parenting performed by Alan Rushton and Elizabeth Monck. It is also possible to order the more detailed research book from BAAF amongst other routes. During the quiet period of Christmas I have read the book. The book itself looks at the question as to whether a specific form of advice for adoptive parents is of any substantial benefit. What is, however, important about the book is not just that question, but other aspects. Social Care is an area which has very few randomised trials. What that means is you cannot really be certain as to whether the approaches taken in individual cases are one which one would expect to reliably produce positive results. It is reasonably well known that adopting a child from care is more difficult than adopting a child from birth. Often the parents feel abandoned by the system and a very large proportion of adoptions from care break down at some stage with the child returning to care. There has bee...

Reigate and Banstead BC, Earlswood and Whitebushes Con 391 (37.9; -12.8) LD Steve Keith Oddy 313 (30.4; +6.6) Lab 161 (15.6; -0.7) UKIP 125 (12.1; +2.8) BNP 41 (4.0; +4.0) Majority 78 Turnout 16.38% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2008. Party defending seat: Con. Cause: Resignation. Great Sankey PC, Whittle Hall LD Matt Newton 573 (63.0) Con 336 (37.0) Majority 237 Turnout 11.99% LD hold. Party defending seat: LD. Cause: Resignation

Bedford BC, Kingsbrook LD Andrew Gerard 661 (49.4; +3.1) Lab 370 (27.6; +3.5) Con 150 (11.2; -9.2) Others Ind 85 / Ind 73 (11.8; +11.8) [Green (0.0; -9.2)] Majority 291 Turnout 13% LD hold Percentage change is since June 2009. East Dunbartonshire UA, (Ward number 3) Bearsden South LD Ashay Ghai 1110 (29.4; +3.0) Con 1261 (33.4; +9.0) SNP 783 (20.7; +1.6) Lab 626 (16.6; -2.7) [Green (0.0; -5.1)] [Others (0.0; -5.7)] Turnout not known. LD gain from Con. Percentage change is since May 2007. Stage 1: Ashay Ghai LD 1110 Rachel Higgins Con 1261 Fiona Grace McLeod SNP 783 Manjinder Shergill Lab 626 Stage 2 elimination of Shergill: LD 1306 Con 1381 SNP 972 Stage 3 elimination of McLeod: LD 1770 Con 1499 Hastings BC, St Helens Con 609 (40.7; -17.9) Lab 550 (36.7; +12.5) LD John Tunbridge 210 (14.0; -3.2) BNP 93 (6.2; +6.2) Others (English Democrats) 36 (2.4; +2.4) Majority 59 Turnout 37.4% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2008. Nuneaton and Bedworth BC, Camp Hill Lab 670 (47.1; +17.0) BN...

The link which is also here is to my expenses claimed up to and including Q1 2009-10. There is an error in the 2008-9 papers where some documents have been scanned more than once, but that is obvious if you compare the pages and the document reference numbers. People will be able to note that the last time I made a claim for anything relating to my second home in London was on 31st March 2009. As people know I took the view that the country needed to make economies. That, therefore, was a simple economy to make.

Redcar & Cleveland UA, Ormesby LD Ann Wilson 1084 (73.5; +12.4) Lab 210 (14.2; -5.0) UKIP 103 (7.0; +7.0) Con 77 (5.2; -14.4) Majority 874 Turnout 29.55% LD hold Percentage change is since May 2007. Thanet DC, Dane Valley Lab 318 (34.2; -3.9) LD Bill Furness 260 (28.0; +28.0) Con 222 (23.9; -19.7) Ind 130 (14.0; -4.4) Majority 58 Turnout 17.0% Lab gain from Con Percentage change is since May 2007. Deal TC, North Deal Con 529 (33.2) Lab 337 (21.2) LD Nathan Sewell 198 (12.4) Majority 192 Turnout 21.26% Con gain from Lab