John Hemming's Web Log

Its that time of year again. Normally I don't comment much about local issues on my weblog as we issue leaflets to residents in Yardley. However, I will do this on this occasion (as I did last year). Casework and the office The last case reference of 2009 was 13945. Previous year ends were: 2008: 9836, 2007: 7763, 2006: 5597. The number has increased in the last year. Casework is very important as not only can we resolve issues for people, but also I learn what is going wrong in the real world - as opposed to the Westminster bubble. There remain odd decisions made by the various governmental bodies although it does not seem to have got much worse over the year. The advice desert is also still an issue. The team has run smoothly without any big changes although we moved away from alternating people in London with Martin being now full time in London. Neil also continues to help with the APPGOPO. Yardley Bakeman House having been dealt with we now have Wheeldon house being improv...

The link is to a summary of the research on adoptive parenting performed by Alan Rushton and Elizabeth Monck. It is also possible to order the more detailed research book from BAAF amongst other routes. During the quiet period of Christmas I have read the book. The book itself looks at the question as to whether a specific form of advice for adoptive parents is of any substantial benefit. What is, however, important about the book is not just that question, but other aspects. Social Care is an area which has very few randomised trials. What that means is you cannot really be certain as to whether the approaches taken in individual cases are one which one would expect to reliably produce positive results. It is reasonably well known that adopting a child from care is more difficult than adopting a child from birth. Often the parents feel abandoned by the system and a very large proportion of adoptions from care break down at some stage with the child returning to care. There has bee...

Reigate and Banstead BC, Earlswood and Whitebushes Con 391 (37.9; -12.8) LD Steve Keith Oddy 313 (30.4; +6.6) Lab 161 (15.6; -0.7) UKIP 125 (12.1; +2.8) BNP 41 (4.0; +4.0) Majority 78 Turnout 16.38% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2008. Party defending seat: Con. Cause: Resignation. Great Sankey PC, Whittle Hall LD Matt Newton 573 (63.0) Con 336 (37.0) Majority 237 Turnout 11.99% LD hold. Party defending seat: LD. Cause: Resignation

Bedford BC, Kingsbrook LD Andrew Gerard 661 (49.4; +3.1) Lab 370 (27.6; +3.5) Con 150 (11.2; -9.2) Others Ind 85 / Ind 73 (11.8; +11.8) [Green (0.0; -9.2)] Majority 291 Turnout 13% LD hold Percentage change is since June 2009. East Dunbartonshire UA, (Ward number 3) Bearsden South LD Ashay Ghai 1110 (29.4; +3.0) Con 1261 (33.4; +9.0) SNP 783 (20.7; +1.6) Lab 626 (16.6; -2.7) [Green (0.0; -5.1)] [Others (0.0; -5.7)] Turnout not known. LD gain from Con. Percentage change is since May 2007. Stage 1: Ashay Ghai LD 1110 Rachel Higgins Con 1261 Fiona Grace McLeod SNP 783 Manjinder Shergill Lab 626 Stage 2 elimination of Shergill: LD 1306 Con 1381 SNP 972 Stage 3 elimination of McLeod: LD 1770 Con 1499 Hastings BC, St Helens Con 609 (40.7; -17.9) Lab 550 (36.7; +12.5) LD John Tunbridge 210 (14.0; -3.2) BNP 93 (6.2; +6.2) Others (English Democrats) 36 (2.4; +2.4) Majority 59 Turnout 37.4% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2008. Nuneaton and Bedworth BC, Camp Hill Lab 670 (47.1; +17.0) BN...

The link which is also here is to my expenses claimed up to and including Q1 2009-10. There is an error in the 2008-9 papers where some documents have been scanned more than once, but that is obvious if you compare the pages and the document reference numbers. People will be able to note that the last time I made a claim for anything relating to my second home in London was on 31st March 2009. As people know I took the view that the country needed to make economies. That, therefore, was a simple economy to make.

Redcar & Cleveland UA, Ormesby LD Ann Wilson 1084 (73.5; +12.4) Lab 210 (14.2; -5.0) UKIP 103 (7.0; +7.0) Con 77 (5.2; -14.4) Majority 874 Turnout 29.55% LD hold Percentage change is since May 2007. Thanet DC, Dane Valley Lab 318 (34.2; -3.9) LD Bill Furness 260 (28.0; +28.0) Con 222 (23.9; -19.7) Ind 130 (14.0; -4.4) Majority 58 Turnout 17.0% Lab gain from Con Percentage change is since May 2007. Deal TC, North Deal Con 529 (33.2) Lab 337 (21.2) LD Nathan Sewell 198 (12.4) Majority 192 Turnout 21.26% Con gain from Lab

Having a peer in the Tory Party whose tax arrangements are unclear (step forward Lord Ashcroft) is not that surprising. However, having a parliamentary candidate who is a "non domicile" is surprising. The FT's Westminster blog points out on Richmond Park Conservatives Website That they say: 6. Tax the Super Rich and “non-domiciles”. The over-seas population, living in this country, would make a financial contribution to it. Tax loopholes for the super rich would be closed by reducing the complexity of the tax system. This will pay for the previous two measures. This is not just good news for Susan Kramer MP, but also a real challenge for David Cameron. Are his MPs really committed to the country?

The link is to a recent judgment in which para 10 says: I think it important to remember when one is looking either at the independent assessments by social workers or at applications under section 38(6) of the Act that one needs to be child focused. It is not a question of the mother's right to have a further assessment, it is: would the assessment assist the judge in reaching a conclusion or the right conclusion in relation to the child in question? And on this particular issue it does seem to me that the judge was exercising a discretion and doing so appropriately on all the facts available to him. He thus reached a conclusion which I cannot for myself say in any way is plainly wrong, and since he has based himself on the latest authority on the point and considered the matter carefully, I, speaking for myself, cannot say either that he has erred in law and would dismiss the appeal in relation to a further social worker assessment. This is a decision of the court of appeal which...

Cornwall UA, St Austell Bay LD John Oxenham 690 (48.2; +14.7) Con 675 (47.2; -12.3) Lab 66 (4.6; -2.4) Majority 15 Turnout 41.04% LD gain from Con Percentage change is since June 2009. Flintshire UA, Northop Other (Ind) 343 / 227 (46.2; -23.1) Con 280 (22.7; +22.7) Lab 197 (16.0; -14.7) LD Rob Mackey 187 (15.2; +15.2) Majority 63 Turnout 48.99% Other hold Percentage change is since May 2008. Fylde BC, Clifton Con 386 (35.3; -10.9) Other (Fylde Ratepayers Association) 372 (34.1; -6.5) LD Mike Turner 241 (22.1; +22.1) Lab 80 (7.3; -5.9) Green 13 (1.2; +1.2) Majority 14 Turnout 29.51% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2007 Hertsmere BC, Bushey Heath Con 748 (74.8; -3.9) LD Anita Ownsworth 157 (15.7; +6.8) Lab 95 (9.5; +1.3) [Green (0.0; -4.2)] Majority 591 Turnout 20.29% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2008 High Peak DC, Blackbrook LD Edith Longden 689 (56.9; +16.5) Con 470 (38.8; -20.8) Lab 52 (4.3; +4.3) Majority 219 Turnout 35.61% LD gain from Con Percentage change is sin...

The link is to an abstract. OBJECTIVE: To discover the outcomes for children placed late for adoption (between 5 and 11 years old) from public care and to establish which factors predict poorer outcome. METHOD: Data were collected prospectively (1993-2003) from a representative sample of domestic U.K. adoptive placements (N = 108) at the start of placement, at 1 year, and 6 years later. Most of the children entered care because of abuse and neglect. Outcome was assessed by the disruption rate, by a twofold classification of the character of continuing placements, and by an assessment of psychological well-being. RESULTS: At the adolescent follow-up, 23% of placements had disrupted, 49% were continuing positively, and 28% were continuing but with substantial ongoing difficulties. Four factors contributed independently to a higher risk of disruption: older age at placement (odds ratio = 1.07), having been singled out from siblings and rejected (5.87), time in care (1.04), and a high leve...

This programme is an interesting interview with Professor Sir Michael Rutter about the effects of Romanian Orphanages on children. What I find particularly interesting is that his conclusion was that the children who left the orphanage before 6 months generally did not suffer from long lasting disorders. "in all of our followups we have found no deficits in children whose institutional deprivation ended before the age of 6 months. That is not to say that at an individual level that there is no child that is affected, but it is to say that the differences were so small that we couldn't measure them." "The rate of deficits jumped to a rate of 40% in the second half of the first year." What is important about this is that it implies that the RAD seen in the large numbers of children taken into care in England in their first 3 months is not caused by their parenting, but by something else.

The link is to an article in today's Guardian about adoptions that fail. I found an interesting element at the bottom. The British Association of Adoption and Fostering (BAAF) estimates that one in five adoptions break down, although children who are "handed back" are usually older. The younger the child, the lower the chance of the placement breaking down. A study by the Maudsley Hospital in London found a breakdown rate of 8% after one year and 29% six years later. On average, adoptions that broke down did so 34 months after placement. I have been for some time been trying to get some research results on how many forced adoptions fail (aka are disrupted). When doing statistics the government don't count the failed adoptions as outcomes for children as they appear in the Section 20 care figures instead. Hence their assumptions are flawed. It would be interesting to compare the figures on adoption failure in other countries to England.

For some time I have been concerned that it is not possible to scrutinise the details of the treasury forecasting. That is because the government have historically refused to provide the data that they put into the Economic Model. They are happy to provide a copy of the program, but without the data it is not possible to check the figures. We are in a really challenging situation as a country where action needs to be taken to bring the budgetary deficit under control, but at the same time not to kick the economy over the edge. This is an occasion when proper scrutiny really needs access to the inputs. I put in written question on the issue again recently and the government again refused to answer the question, but I hope to raise this issue within the appeals process.

This report from NHS West Midlands shows that there is a mixed picture across the region in terms of GP consultation rates but increasing numbers of hospital admissions and patients in critical care. Key Messages Across the West Midlands there has been a mixed picture in patients presenting at primary care centres with influenza-like symptoms, some PCT areas show an increase, other areas show a decrease, in rates. Overall, the West Midlands rate has increased but this is not impacting on normal service delivery. The Department of Health has announced that the vaccination programme will be extended to children over six months and under five years. Activity /Rates – GPs This shows the number of patients attending primary care with influenza-like illness, taken from the latest Health Protection Agency QSurveillance data. This data indicates an increase for the week ending 15 November 2009, across England and the West Midlands, but a decrease within the Birmingham East and North area. The ...

Cheshire East UA, Cholmondeley Con 1764 (77.6; +6.6) LD Bryan Halson 508 (22.4; +4.9) [Lab (0,0; -11.5)] Majority 1256 Turnout 19.61% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2008 Doncaster MBC, Rossington Lab 637 (26.9; +1.1) Others 1553 (65.6; +5.3) (English Democrats 551, 3 Independents 506 / 420 / 76 ) BNP 101 (4.3; +4.3) LD Robert Mitchell 78 (3.3; +3.3) [Con (0.0; -13.9)] Majority 86 Turnout 24.6% Lab gain from Ind. Percentage change is since May 2008. Falkirk UA, Bo'ness and Blackness SNP 1604 (57.5; +10.3) Lab 823 (29.5; -2.4) Con 283 (!0.1; -2.6) LD Gavin Chomczuk 79 (2.8; +2.8) [Others (0.0; -8.1)] Turnout 23.5% SNP hold Percentage change is since May 2007 Forest of Dean DC, Coleford East Ind 267 (29.8; +1.2) LD Heather Lusty 230 (25.7; +25.7) Con 210 (23.5; -17.7) Lab 188 (21.0; -9.2) Majority 37 Turnout 21% Ind gain from Con Percentage change is since May 2007 Wellington TC, Rockwell Green Con 213 (40.3) Lab 212 (40.1) LD Mark Lithgow 104 (19.7) Majority 1 Turnout 28.8% ...

The link is to the bill on parliament's website. The text of the bill follows from here I wonder if the "guarantees" in this are "cast iron guarantees" or not. I need to go through the family proceedings stuff in detail, but it appears that Jack Straw's Civil Servants have betrayed him again and are setting up a system so that a journalist has to be present to say what went on and that otherwise reporting the proceedings even anonymously is still contempt.

I spoke during the Queens Speech debate yesterday. The link gives a video.

Every year on Queens Speech day (today) the new set of Early Day Motions is tabled. This means a new set of numbers starting with number 1. Anyone who wishes to get a low number needs to queue up until the Table Office opens at 10am today. No-one, however, tries to beat Bob Russell MP (aka Mr Colchester). Bob Turns up the night before and sleeps in his sleeping bag in the queue for the table office. This is the "Shock and Awe" of parliamentary proceedings. Noone tries to beat him because he is unbeatable. The photo below is Bob this morning having slept the night in his sleeping bag (which is the green thing under the table).

East Devon DC, Trinity Con elected unopposed. Con gain from Ind. Party defending seat: Ind. Cause. Resignation. Shepway BC, New Romney Coast Con 452 (51.4; +2.2) LD Brian Wright 333 (37.9; -12.9) UKIP 94 (10.7; +10.7) Majority 119 Turnout 30.65% Con gain from LD Percentage change is since May 2007. Party defending seat: LD. Cause: Resignation. South Hams DC, Totnes Bridgetown LD Mike Hannaford 522 (52.4; +27.4) Green 265 (26.6; +26.6) Con 162 (16.2; +5.5) Lab 48 (4.8; -4.1) [UKIP (0.0; -12.4)] [Others (0.0; -43.0)] Majority 257 Turnout 33.85% LD hold Percentage change is since May 2007

The link is to the debate about the Court Fees. The old 1215 Magna Carta was changed on numerous occasions, but there are still some sections of the 1297 Magna Carta that are in force in the UK. This can be seen here on the statute law database. One of the sections that remains in force is Section 29. NO Freeman shall be taken or imprisoned, or be disseised of his Freehold, or Liberties, or free Customs, or be outlawed, or exiled, or any other wise destroyed; nor will We not pass upon him, nor[condemn him,] but by lawful judgment of his Peers, or by the Law of the Land. We will sell to no man, we will not deny or defer to any man either Justice or Right The government are proposing to charge fees for court access to include the cost of remitted fees for those people who cannot afford the fees. Whichever way you look at it this involves selling justice. I don't think this can be done via an SI.