John Hemming's Web Log

I went to the Peak Oil Task Force launch at the Stock Exchange Today. Will Whitehorn, Jeremy Leggett, Brian Souter and Ian Marchant all demonstrated a very good understanding of the situation. It even sounded as if individual carbon budgets/tradeable carbon budgets found favour. Interestingly their report (see link for their website) is perhaps not as stark as the warnings from the IEA. They have agreed to do an APPGOPO event as well. It is an interesting comparison between the readiness of the private sector (although they want some public sector interest) and the lack of urgency in central government.

I intervened a number of times during the Climate Change Bill Third Reading. The link is to the debate in Hansard. I will extract the interventions and my speech then comment. John Hemming (Birmingham, Yardley) (LD): I am slightly confused about this issue. Last Monday, the Prime Minister said that we needed a constantly rising supply of oil, notwithstanding the use of renewables. Does the Minister have any idea of whether our oil consumption is expected to fall over time—whether or not aviation and shipping are included—and in which year would we first see a fall? Joan Ruddock: I shall not speculate on the extraneous matters that the hon. Gentleman has raised. John Hemming: I am a little confused by the Prime Minister saying that we need an ever-increasing supply of oil. Does the hon. Gentleman believe that as a result of the Bill there will be a reduction in the amount of crude oil used by this country? Gregory Barker: I do not think there is going to be an immediate reduction in ...

The linked story is based upon an IEA report which indicates a depletion rate of 9.1% rather than the normally expected figure of 8%. There is still some vague exhortations to investment, but frankly there should now start to be a recognition that the geological constraints on the availability of oil have to lead to a change in the assumptions behind economic planning. We must plan for reductions in oil availability rather than increases.

It is interesting that Reform in announcing that I am one of the top 5 in their maths quiz have said: Reform’s Deputy Director, Elizabeth Truss, said: “As we enter the worst recession in living memory, we need politicians who can do the math.” I am, however, not as free market a politician as Reform would like. For example I take the view that we need medium term stability in energy markets something that a pure free market does not provide.

Charnwood BC, Loughborough Dishley and Hathern Lab 838 (49.7; +5.0) Con 490 (29.1; -9.7) BNP 234 (13.9; -2.6) LD Diane Horn 107 (6.4; +6.4) National Front 16 (0.9; +0.9) Majority 348 Turnout 35.5% Lab hold Percentage change is since May 2007 Chichester DC, East Wittering Con 410 (40.3; +6.6) LD Mary Green 364 (35.8; +7.0) BNP 125 (12.3; +12.3) Lab 69 (6.8; -0.4) UKIP 49 (4.8; +4.8) [Ind (0.0; -30.3)] Majority 46 Turnout 25.1% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2007 East Dorset DC, Alderholt Con 499 (53.0; -12.5) LD David Tooke 442 (47.0; +19.7) Majority 57 Turnout 41.8% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2007 Merthyr Tydfil UA, Town Lab 580 (35.7; +16.7) LD Nigel Hulbert 461 (28.4; -18.1) Ind 277 (17.0; -1.8) Ind 125 (7.7; +7.7) Ind 110 (6.8; +6.8) PC 72 (4.4; -11.3) Majority 119 Turnout 28% Lab gain from LD Percentage change is since May 2008 Ribble Valley BC, Billington and Old Langho Con 350 (61.1; +10.3) LD John Green 181 (31.6; -17.6) Lab 42 (7.3; +7.3) Majority 169 Turn...

The point about the following is that we continue the question as to whether over time the government expect the UK to use less oil. I accept the point about balancing priorities, but there will be an aggregate cut in usage forced on the country. Trying to deny this just makes the adjustment harder. John Hemming (Birmingham, Yardley) (LD): I congratulate the Deputy Leader of the House on the skill with which he is defending the indefensible on issues such as the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill. On Monday I raised the issue of oil with the Prime Minister, at columns 33 to 34 of Hansard, and he said that we needed a constantly increasing supply. I find that rather strange, because if we are going to do something about climate change we need to reduce the consumption of oil. May we have a debate about the pressures on Ministers? The Prime Minister has clearly lost the plot, and perhaps the Deputy Leader of the House, standing in for his boss, standing in for her boss, would do a...

On current figures production is Jun 86.51 Jul 87.80 Aug 86.78. September is expected to drop about 1mbd. Estimated global demand is Q3 86.51 Q4 88.03. Q4 has heating demand in the northern hemisphere. We can see that production has been greater than demand for almost a year now, but looks like going back into an excess of demand over production. If OPEC manage to contract supply a bit then it could drive up earlier, but a price response will probably happen before winter is out.

I voted against the programme motion on the basis that it was curtailing debate wrongly. I voted for a number of amendments, but against one that simply messed up the wording. I then voted against the Third Reading. The general reasoning was that the GMC continue to refuse to investigate unethical research. Hence we need as tight as possible criminal controls on research until the regulatory systems and health authorities are willing to properly investigate detailed documented evidence of unethical research (including giving babies lethal concentrations of Carbon Monoxide even if not for lethal periods).

John Hemming (Birmingham, Yardley, Liberal Democrat) Link to this Hansard source The recent high prices and volatility in the price of oil is symptomatic of geological constraints on supply—also known as peak oil and gas. Do the Government have a view as to when peak production will occur globally, and does the Prime Minister believe that it is worth doing that research? Gordon Brown (Prime Minister; Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Labour) Link to this Hansard source The hon. Gentleman is right to raise the question of supplies of oil for the future. That is concerning all countries. Not only do we need stability of supply, but, even as we move into nuclear and renewables, we will need a constantly rising supply of oil. That means that we must ensure that the demand for oil is met by supply, otherwise the price will go up again. We are, therefore, looking at what supply of oil there is, and we are trying in the North sea to increase the production that is available from some of the s...

I found out that the contracts for the bank restructure are in the Commons Library. (This available on the net here, but be careful they are 15Mb . I have had a glance through them and not warranting anything about the figures it appears that RBS is issuing 22,863,936,713 shares at 65.5, HBOS 7,482,933,000 shares at 113.6 and LLOY 2,885,200,000 shares at 173.3. The government is getting an underwriting fee of 1.5%. On the market figures today it looks like the RBS shares will be mainly issued to other than the government. Lloyds is touch and go, but the government may end up holding a lot of HBOS. Also the preference shares are to be listed immediately. That would allow the government to sell them at a profit. E

There is clearly some good news in that the government have responded to New Clauses 8 and 9 with something. If we can get family court proceedings reported then we should be able to get something done about the corruption in the system. The challenge, of course, is to ensure that it is reported. Hence I intend to ensure that a Family Law Reporter media outlet starts business. This will ensure that the stories the judges don't want to get told are told as well as those that the judges want told.

The link is to a story about a French bank losing about 600m Euros. This has to be a derivatives trade. It always surprises me how little understanding the senior management of some banks seem to have about the risk profile of derivatives. It is a bit like juggling with bombs. It is ok until you drop one.

I want to have a more detailed look at the proposals for the UK banking rescue. Firstly this is based upon the system used in Sweden. It was, in fact, the Liberal Democrats that proposed this first. The idea for the equity is that the government underwrites a rights issue. A rights issue is where people who already hold shares are allowed to buy more at a cheaper price than they originally bought. If they decide not to put any more money in then the underwriter buys the shares. The underwriter charges a fee. In this case the underwriter is the government. The question, of course, is the price of the rights issue. For RBS the current price is around 68p. It is difficult to find published figures as to the rights price, but a broker I know believes it is 65p. The other thing the government is doing is putting in some subordinated debt. The point about such debt is that it is more secure than equity. In the UK they are charging a rate of 12% whereas in the US it is 5-6% (figures fr...

Kirklees MBC, Dewsbury East Still counting (12:09pm Friday 17-10-2008) Kirklees MBC, Dewsbury East Lab 1513 (37.4; -2.0) LD Dennis Hullock 1405 (34.8; +14.3) BNP 690 (17.1; -10.6) Con 345 (8.5; -3.9) Green 58 (1.4; +1.4) Ind 17 (0.4; +0.4) Ind 15 (0.4; +0.4) Majority 108 Turnout 31% Lab gain from BNP Percentage change is since May 2008 Redcar and Cleveland BC, South Bank Lab 652 (49.9; -0.6) LD Toni Meir 288 (22.1; +12.3) BNP 206 (15.8; +1.4) Ind 101 (7.7; -7.3) Con 59 (4.5; -5.8) Majority 364 Turnout 27.6% Lab hold Percentage change is since May 2007 Tewkesbury BC, Churchdown Brookfield Ind 598 (39.0; +2.2) LD Tony Stokes 508 (33.2; -7.0) Con 364 (23.8; +5.8) Lab 62 (4.0; -0.9) Majority 90 Turnout 45.3% Ind gain from LD Percentage change is since May 2007 Watford BC, Tudor LD Darren Walford 932 (50.0; +3.1) Con 486 (26.1; -12.4) Lab 273 (14.6; +4.0) Green 91 (4.9; +0.9) BNP 83 (4.5; +4.5) Majority 446 Turnout 40.8% LD hold Percentage change is since May 2008

NICE use QALYs to calculate the effectiveness of drugs. I heard tonight that someone aged 60 cannot have a QALY of more than 0.6 per year. This sounds very wrong, but is not clear on the NICE site. It may be this is the reason why NICE have been so difficult on revealing their formulae. The challenge now is to get to the Truth.

The link is to a daily mail story which demonstrates the self-serving nature of some of the practitioners who behave in an unaccountable manner. This is a specific criticms of a number of practitioners, not all practitioners.

A further resolution at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has been tabled as part of the Enquiry process. (Link for full details) 1. The Assembly recognises that the protection of human rights is one of the Council of Europe’s core values. It recognises that children are particularly vulnerable and that systems must be in place to protect those children considered “at risk”. 2. The Assembly believes, however, that those who are tasked with protecting children need to be accountable for their actions and need to operate in a way which protects the human rights of all the people they are dealing with. 3. The Assembly notes the recent judgment of the European Court of Human Rights, X. v. Croatia (Application No. 11223/04) dated 17 July 2008, which held unanimously that there had been a violation of Article 8 (right to respect for private and family life) on account of the applicant’s exclusion from the proceedings which resulted in her daughter being ad...

Bristol UA, St George West LD Tony Potter 923 (34.0; +9.1) Lab 816 (30.1; -8.2) Con 509 (18.8; -18.1) Ind 257 (9.5; +9.5) Green 116 (4.3; +4.3) English Democrats 93 (3.4; +3.4) Majority 107 Turnout 32.9% LD gain from Lab Percentage change is since May 2007 Cheshire CC, Knutsford Con 1647 (58.7; +11.4) LD Caroline Aldhouse 818 (29.1; -2.0) Lab 342 (12.2; -9.4) Majority 829 Turnout 28% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2005 Cheshire East UA, Knutsford Con 1679 (59.7; +2.1) LD Caroline Aldhouse 817 (29.0; +5.0) Lab 318 (11.3; -7.2) Majority 862 Turnout 28% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2008 East Hampshire DC, Holybourne and Froyle Con 424 (54.6; -13.6) LD Dean-Paul Phillips 352 (45.4; +21.6) [Ind (0.0; -8.0)] Majority 72 Turnout 35.6% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2007 Haringey LBC, Alexandra LD Nigel Scott 1460 (49.9; -6.0) Lab 772 (26.4; +5.9) Con 443 (15.2; +6.3) Green 221 (7.6; -7.3) BNP 27 (0.9; +0.9) Majority 688 Turnout 35% LD hold Percentage change is sin...

New Clause 8 was the clause to increase accountability and reduce miscarriages of justice in the family courts. This fell yesterday because it didn't have time. It was in fact this amendment that was talked out by the government not the smacking ones - they came later. The way amendments work at the report stage is that they come in strings. Once The House has started to debate a string then any votes required to conclude the business can occur. Yesterday's strings were: Long-term residential placements and duties on local authorities Govt NC19 + NC6 + NC24 + NC26 + NC28 + 13 + 14 + 18 + Govt 8 + Govt 9 Fostering NC7 + NC13 + NC23 Family proceedings NC8 Human rights, immigration agency, pilots etc NC17 + 5 + Govt 4 + 6 Reasonable chastisement NC18 + NC25 + 15 + 16 Supplementary and technical provisions Govt 7 + Govt 10 + Govt NS1 You can see the amendments themselves on the parliament website Under the bill here . What the government did was to delay the 10 minute rule bill by...

Well, Iceland has a population of around 320,000. What we seem to have from Iceland is Bjork and dodgy banks. It is bigger by population than the Wirral and slightly smaller by population than Wakefield. Were it to be an English local authority by population it would be the unlucky 13th largest. If they borrow approx £3bn from Russia that works out at around £10,000 per resident (including babies). More importantly this is real money that is needed to be paid back to Russia. The funding offered by the UK government is the availability of funds which in itself is likely to make the actual offering of funds less likely. HSBC have already said that they don't want any money from the government. It is obviously best for banks not to have to call on the solvency money and when people are assured of solvency then they should be comfortable to provide private liquidity. This is, however, uncharted territory. There are two big problems that face the world and this country to varying...