As I am the sort of person who is interested in the mechanics of elections I thought I would have a look at the seat allocation procedure. It is a different procedure to that used by the UK for the European Parliament (D'Hondt). The details are available at the link above.
The initial quota is 30,750. All parties with less than that get excluded leaving only the remaining groups. I'm in bit of a rush at the moment so I have not checked the calculations. These are the figures at stage 2 of the allocation.
On this I guess that SCIRI/Da'wa UIA will have 140 seats of the 275 viz a majority.
This is the interesting thing about the net. All the media are saying that UIA don't have a majority, but on my calculations they do.
The initial quota is 30,750. All parties with less than that get excluded leaving only the remaining groups. I'm in bit of a rush at the moment so I have not checked the calculations. These are the figures at stage 2 of the allocation.
| Party | Votes | Quota | My Guess |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 43205 | 1.48 | 2 |
| 130 | 2175551 | 74.69 | 75 |
| 169 | 4075295 | 139.92 | 140 |
| 175 | 93480 | 3.2 | 3 |
| 204 | 36255 | 1.24 | 1 |
| 255 | 150680 | 5.17 | 5 |
| 258 | 36795 | 1.26 | 1 |
| 283 | 60592 | 2.08 | 2 |
| 285 | 1166943 | 40.07 | 40 |
| 311 | 30796 | 1.06 | 1 |
| 324 | 69920 | 2.40 | 2/3 |
| 352 | 43205 | 2.40 | 2/3 |
| Total | 8009450 | 275 |
On this I guess that SCIRI/Da'wa UIA will have 140 seats of the 275 viz a majority.
This is the interesting thing about the net. All the media are saying that UIA don't have a majority, but on my calculations they do.
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