Skip to main content

Iraq Election Results (provisional)

There are those that say that the Vietnam Election results from 1967 are a precedent that informs the Iraqi Results announced about 90 minutes ago (1pm GMT, 4pm Iraqi Time).

I would argue differently. The national results which *provisionally give the following:
130 Kurd Alliance2,175,55126%
169 Shi'a UIA4,075,29548%
2851,168,94314%
Total Votes8,456,266


Are a clear victory for the Shi'a UIA list with the Kurds putting in a very strong showing. This gives the Kurds+Shi'a 74%. For key votes in the provisional national assembly 67% is needed. Also the Shi'a list have to be in government.

*provisional - subject to appeal by parties
Note I have only reported those parties that got over a million votes.

Most of the parties got small votes which will not deliver any representatives. 85 parties got less than 10,000 votes. That will probably give the Shi'a UIA a majority in the Assembly. (As those votes will most likely not be counted towards anything. I have, however, not checked the rules on this. )

Vote RangeNo of Parties
0-10,00085
10,001-50,00013
50,001-100,0004
100,001-1,000,0001 - list 255 at 150,680 Ghazi al-Yawer (Sunni Arab - President)
Over 1 Million3 as above


This gives the "big three" 7,419,789. If you assume 250,000ish other votes are counted towards representatives that gives a vote that matters of say 7,750,000.
This gives the UIA 53% and Kurds 28%.

There is a possiblity of calm in the future, but only if the belligerent forces are withdrawn.

Election Rules
I don't know what the rules are that relate the elected representatives and the numbers of votes. The system is a party list system which elects a number of representatives from a list starting with the first one. There are a number of systems that can be used. D'Hondt and St Lague are the most common. Both of these provide representatives until all the representatives have been allocated. I believe every third candidate is required to be female.

Mathematically the number of votes cast divided by 275 is 30,750. This would imply any party with more than 30,750 votes gets someone. Note that 85 parties have less than 10,000 and will get nothing. The allocation system tends to bias towards the larger parties as well. If they are using one of these systems then they probably will

The difference in Vietnam particularly was that the opposition to the US was divided into a large number of groups. The US sympathising faction in Vietnam got 35% of the vote and won. In Iraq the US associated faction (which also called for troop withdrawal in Arabic) only got 14%.

To that extent the result differs in that the winners cannot be defined as being sympathetic with the US. The Kurds have their own interests which have historically aligned with the US, but they don't have a blocking vote.

It is clear that the US have trained their sights on Iran. Hence having elections in Iraq which result in a faction seen as sympathetic to Iran being elected will not go down well with the Project for a New American Century.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Statement re false allegations from Esther Baker

Statement by John Hemming
I am pleased that the Police have now made it clear that there has been a concerted effort to promote false criminal allegations against me and that the allegations had no substance whatsoever.
I would like to thank Emily Cox, my children, Ayaz Iqbal (my Solicitor), my local lib dem team and many others who supported me through this dreadful experience. There are many worse things that happen to people, but this was a really bad experience.
It is bad enough to have false allegations made about yourself to the police, but to have a concerted campaign involving your political opponents and many others in public creates an environment in which it is reasonable to be concerned about ill founded vigilante attacks on your family and yourself. Luckily there was a more substantial lobby to the contrary as well, which included many people who were themselves real survivors of abuse, which has helped.
I am normally someone who helps other people fight injustice. …

Statement re Police investigation into Harassment and Perverting the Course of Justice.

It was recently reported that the police were not investigating the allegations of Perverting the Course of Justice that I had made. This came as a surprise to me as I had been told for some time that my allegations were to be considered once the VRR had been rejected. I have now had a very constructive meeting with Staffordshire police on Friday 29th June 2018 and the misunderstandings have been resolved. At that meeting the evidence relating to the perversion of the course of justice and the harassment campaign against my family were discussed. The police have decided to investigate both the perversion of the course of justice and also the harassment campaign. I would like to thank them for changing their decision and I accept their apology for the way in which they did that. I am also in possession of written confirmation a police force would be investigating allegations that a vulnerable witness has been harassed for trying to expose the campaign against me. I hope that the aut…

R v SUSSEX JUSTICES ex p McCARTHY [1924] 1 KB 256

I have only just found this one which I think is accurately reported below (but if it is not please give me an accurate report).

KING’S BENCH DIVISION

R v SUSSEX JUSTICES ex p McCARTHY [1924] 1 KB 256

November 9 1923

Editor’s comments in bold.

Here, the magistrates’ clerk retired with the bench when they were considering a charge of dangerous driving. The clerk belonged to a firm of solicitors acting in civil proceedings for the other party to the accident. It was entirely irrelevant that there had been no evidence of actual influence brought to bear on the magistrates, and the conviction was duly quashed.

LORD HEWART CJ:
It is clear that the deputy clerk was a member of the firm of solicitors engaged in the conduct of proceedings for damages against the applicant in respect of the same collision as that which gave rise to the charge that the justices were considering. It is said, and, no doubt, truly, that when that gentleman retired in the usual way with the justices, taking with him the…