John Hemming's Web Log

This page forecasts when each NHS Trust will have peak Covid admissions. The calculation is done by fitting admissions to a Gompertz Curve. The data is slightly out of date. Some adjustments have been made between areas for transfers, but not enough. Data last date 10/1/2021 This table reports a forecast based upon fitting hospital admissions to a gompertz curve starting in November. Xmas will skew these figures, but it is a mechanism for forecasting demand. Peak admissions Peak Date Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust 8 13.01.2021 353 Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust 25 29.01.2021 585 Salisbury NHS Foundation Trust 13 20.01.2021 542 Dorset County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 8 27.01.2021 280 East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust 23 02.01.2021 1205 Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 34 21.01.2021 1349 University Hospitals Dorset NHS Foundation Trust 25 05.01.2021 1293 Essex Partnership University NHS Foundation Trust 6 29.12.2020 293 South London and Maudsley NHS

Data last date 10/1/2021 This table reports admissions into hospital trusts for covid in the order of the number of admissions in the last available week compared to the total number of admissions. The idea is to highlight those trusts which are having a high level of admissions that has grown in the past two weeks. Some trusts serve areas where there is a high level of immunity and hence few people being infected. However, some patients are being redirected to other hospitals and we don't necessarily see the same low level of admissions. Total admissions Admissions Last Week Admissions Prior Week Admissions Fortnight first wave Compare last two weeks Percentage of total in last week Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust 408 110 51 24 Growing 27.0 Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust 253 68 10 11 Growing 26.9 Salisbury NHS Foundation Trust 518 139 69 63 Growing 26.8 Dorset County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 266 68 40 32 Growing 25.6 East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust 1274 277 88 98