John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Friday, November 25, 2005
  Why so little comment about Gas
What was interesting about today was that the 7 day rolling average of extracts from storage which includes last weeks outy/inny now predicts a number of days less than 100 for breaching the safety monitors.

The feeling I have is that people believed the National Grid's Winter Outlook 2005's prediction of 303 from Beach 42 from the interconnector and 13 from Grain. The fact is that Beach and Grain together have only managed to peak at 302 (on 23rd) and the interconnector struggles to get close to 42 even on nominations let alone physical flow.

The sums of money are quite big and I expect some large sums of money to be made and lost when the dust settles.

I will be interested to see what the demand is over the weekend. Weekend demand is about 20 mcm less than weekdays, but cold weather makes a real difference.

If beach manages to keep up to the 300 that it hit on Wednesday it will be doing well. However, in cold weather we risk that all the supplies including storage cannot maintain supply - if it extends more than 2-3 days of really cold weather.

The short and medium term supply can supply gas at a faster rate, but only for a short period.

The failure to plan energy policy has to be seen as clearly the responsibility of the government. They can blather on about the interconnector as much as they want, but that is only short 10 mcm. The country as a whole is short about 50 mcm on average over the last week.

Everytime I do the calculations I forcast a real crisis in January. I am not isolated in this.
 
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