Skip to main content

Blair's "winter of discontent"

This winter seems to building into a winter of discontent. The health service is facing substantial problems. The government's solution seems to be to reorganise it. We in Birmingham face either 1 PCT or 3 PCTs. In essence we are going back to a single health authority for the city - a situation much like it used to be about 10 years ago.

The withdrawals from storage appear to have ebbed for the weekend with demand running about 20 mcm lower and hence the withdrawals runnning about 20 mcm lower.

It remains that domestic customers are last to be cut off and that we will have enough gas to keep that going. However, any gas shipper (utility) short of gas is going to have to pay a system price something like 4 times what they would have done previously.

Actual demand yesterday is reported at 351 and forecast for today is 352 (mcm), but Monday jumps to a forecast of 374 - which should take withdrawals from long term storage back up to maximum. At 1pm, however, the forecast flows into the National Transmission System are only 333 which puts a demand on the reserves in the pipes (linepack). This implies that the nominated withdrawals from LTS were too small.

I am meeting up with industry about the energy situation again on Monday. At least they understand the maths behind this even if the government don't. Office temperatures are allowed by law to go as low as 16 C. A reduction in commercial demand by turning down commercial thermostats will have a real effect on gas consumption. The later such an adjustment is made the less of an impact it has. At least the parliamentary estate should turn down the thermostat. Almost all the variability in demand during winter is about heating.

If the market does not reduce demand (and I would estimate that prices have cut demand by about 20 mcm at the moment) then the national grid can start cutting off supplies.

If there is a recognised tightness of supply - which would not formally be done at this stage in any event - it goes through the following steps.

  1. Stage 1 – notice of impending emergency. This indicates that there is a potential gas emergency, but that people might be able to resolve it without cutting off any users.
  2. Stage 2 – declaration of emergency. The OCM is suspended and the
    primary transporter starts cutting interruptible people off.
  3. Stage 3 – firm load shedding. Firm load shedding is divided into three tranches of increasing severity and effect. The three tranches are:
    1. very large end-users (VLDMC) (those taking more than 50 million therms per annum (tpa)(
    2. large end-users (those taking between 25,000 tpa and 50 mtpa)
    3. end-users taking less than 25,000 tpa

  4. Stage 4 – system isolation. The available gas would be allocated to secondary systems supplying domestic end-users;
  5. Stage 5 – restoration. Normal arrangements are restored.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Statement re false allegations from Esther Baker

Statement by John Hemming
I am pleased that the Police have now made it clear that there has been a concerted effort to promote false criminal allegations against me and that the allegations had no substance whatsoever.
I would like to thank Emily Cox, my children, Ayaz Iqbal (my Solicitor), my local lib dem team and many others who supported me through this dreadful experience. There are many worse things that happen to people, but this was a really bad experience.
It is bad enough to have false allegations made about yourself to the police, but to have a concerted campaign involving your political opponents and many others in public creates an environment in which it is reasonable to be concerned about ill founded vigilante attacks on your family and yourself. Luckily there was a more substantial lobby to the contrary as well, which included many people who were themselves real survivors of abuse, which has helped.
I am normally someone who helps other people fight injustice. …

R v SUSSEX JUSTICES ex p McCARTHY [1924] 1 KB 256

I have only just found this one which I think is accurately reported below (but if it is not please give me an accurate report).

KING’S BENCH DIVISION

R v SUSSEX JUSTICES ex p McCARTHY [1924] 1 KB 256

November 9 1923

Editor’s comments in bold.

Here, the magistrates’ clerk retired with the bench when they were considering a charge of dangerous driving. The clerk belonged to a firm of solicitors acting in civil proceedings for the other party to the accident. It was entirely irrelevant that there had been no evidence of actual influence brought to bear on the magistrates, and the conviction was duly quashed.

LORD HEWART CJ:
It is clear that the deputy clerk was a member of the firm of solicitors engaged in the conduct of proceedings for damages against the applicant in respect of the same collision as that which gave rise to the charge that the justices were considering. It is said, and, no doubt, truly, that when that gentleman retired in the usual way with the justices, taking with him the…

Service launched to reduce the pain of calling a call centre.

Click here to try the beta test call entre phoning service"John Hemming, who has created an internet Startup called Cirrostratus since he ceased being an MP, is launching a free online service to make life easier for people phoning call centres.   The service is provided by Cirrostratus, but the SIP backbone is provided by the multi-award winning business VoIP solution, Soho66." John said, "Many people find phoning call centres a real pain.  Our service is aiming to make things a lot easier.   One click on alink or the bookmarks list and our server will phone up the call centre and get through all the menus.  This is a lot faster than when people have to phone up and is less irritating." "Additionally the system uses WebRtc and the internet to make the call. This means that people don't find their normal phone system being blocked whilst they hang on the line waiting to speak to a human being." Marketing Manager from Soho66, David McManus, said: &q…