John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
  IEA - Peak Oil is a plateau, but sooner than expected
The IEA have been "optimists" in predicting a peak in oil supplies at 2030. They are now saying there will be a plateau in about 2011.

This links to Chris Skrebowski's approach of monitoring peak production by looking at the production pipeline.

I have tended to take the view that as far as Oil goes the production curve would not be symmetrical and could see more of a plateau particularly as it is likely to cause waves of global recession as demand is constrained by supply in circumstances where the energy intensity of GDP remains relatively constant.

Still this is a massive shift in the official position of what is the world's main "official" source of global energy statistics.
 
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