John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Thursday, October 23, 2008
  Oil Market Reports
On current figures production is Jun 86.51 Jul 87.80 Aug 86.78. September is expected to drop about 1mbd. Estimated global demand is Q3 86.51 Q4 88.03. Q4 has heating demand in the northern hemisphere.

We can see that production has been greater than demand for almost a year now, but looks like going back into an excess of demand over production. If OPEC manage to contract supply a bit then it could drive up earlier, but a price response will probably happen before winter is out.
 
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better brent chart

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