John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Monday, June 06, 2005
  ASPO bring forward prediction on peak oil to 2006/7
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil are continually trying to predict when the production of crude oil will peak throughout the world.

This is known as a Hubbert Peak named after the Geologist who predicted the peak of production of Crude Oil in the US which he predicted for 1971 from 1956. He was quite a way out on the prediction of global peak predicting it for 1996.

The biggest problem in terms of predicting the global peak of production is that you can only be certain that the peak has been reached about 3 years after you have passed the peak.

Interesting the issue of peak oil is something that BBC website vistors believe by a substantial minority (because it is 44% out of 10 candidates) they would wish to see more coverage on the TV.

Ay the moment ASPO predict a peaking in Conventional Crude oil of 2006 and all crude oil in 2007. This is about 3 years earlier than the last prediction.

One of the key debates is whether there are enough global fossil fuels to hit Kyoto going up

There are quite a few stories floating around about peak oil.

Linked to ASPO is the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre which also does this sort of thing.

Apart from my written question about the date at which the UK becomes an oil importer I have also asked the government for their prediction as to when global oil peaks (I don't mind if they give the conventional figure or they include the other sources). No answer as yet.

From a position of an economic Dimensional Analysis the issue of Peak Oil globally drives much of human activity. Whatever the price if you have not got petrol to put in your tank you won't get very far. Peak oil is the point after which someone doen't have the oil that they had previously. Note the "someone".
 
Comments:
Very pleased to see MPs taking this all important issue up. You have our full support.

James Howard
www.PowerSwitch.org.uk
 
I'm beginning to wonder if I voted for the right party. Good to see MP's taking note of important issues whether palatable or not.
 
You'll be pleased to hear that I'm currently working on developing better and more accurate predictions with Dr Colin Campbell (the leading expert on peak oil, a retired oil geologist) in Ireland. We will be releasing a wealth of information on our new website over the coming months - www.peakoil.ie
 
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