John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Monday, July 31, 2006
  The Media and Opinion Polls
There was an article over the weekend in the Guardian criticising Ming Campbell because the Lib Dems had a rating of 14%. That was in fact an error because the ICM poll referred to had a rating of 17%. Then today MORI produce a poll with a rating of 24%.

What is hidden behind all of these polls is the fact that people's loyalty to parties is changing. There is a developing greater volatility.

Looking at simple headline figures, therefore, do not really show anything of great substance although it does give material from which people can write stories which become out of date and clearly just plain wrong within 2 days.

Cameron, in fact, is doing much like Blair and undermining the support for the tories from strong Conservative supporters.
 
Comments:
As Anthony Wells points out, three polls were conducted at pretty much the same time. From that, only one of them gives the LDs a 24% vote share, while the others come in at around the 17/18% mark. I'd suggest that the MORI poll was something of a rogue result.
 
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