John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
  Energy Supply: The DTI Perspective
When will global oil supply peak?

“The Government consider that the world's oil resources are sufficient to prevent global total oil production peaking before 2030, by which time the International Energy Agency's reference case scenario in its 2005 World Energy Outlook shows global oil demand reaching 115.4 million barrel per day, nearly 40 per cent. higher than current levels.

Market mechanisms will ration the remaining global supplies of oil and provide the incentive for a shift to alternative sources of energy. This process needs to be supported by Governments.”

In all matters of international energy demand and supply the government seem to defer to the IEA.

When will the UK become a net importer of Oil?

In 2005 the UK became a net importer of crude oil (including Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) and feedstocks), on an annual volume basis, for the first time since 1992. However, net exports of refined oil products meant that the UK remained a net exporter of overall oil (crude, NGLs, feedstocks, and refined products). With the large Buzzard Field due on-stream in late 2006, the UK should return to being a net exporter of crude oil (including NGLs and feedstocks) by 2007 before becoming a net importer on a sustained annual basis by 2010.

When will the UK become a net importer of Gas?

“Total associated gas production from the UK continental shelf peaked in 2002 and has since declined. Production from new fields coming on-stream has not matched the decline in production from existing fields, though there have been significant changes from month to month.”

In 2004 the UK became a net importer of Gas

When will the UK become a net importer of Energy?

In 2004, overall primary fuel consumption was not met by indigenous production, and the UK became a net importer of fuel. The UK imported more coal, manufactured fuels, electricity and gas than it exported; however we were still a net exporter of petroleum and its products.

How are Oil Prices Predicted by the Treasury for the Budget?

In the 1999 Pre-Budget Report, the Chancellor said:

The oil price will be based on the average of independent forecasts for one year ahead. If the average of independent forecasts shows a fall in the oil price, that price in real terms will be used for the remainder of the five year forecast period. If the average of independent forecasts for one year ahead shows a rise, then the previous convention that oil prices would be close to their current levels in nominal dollar terms over the coming year, and remain flat in real terms thereafter, will be adopted.
 
Comments:
In all matters of international energy demand and supply the government seem to defer to the IEA.

Indeed. It is clear that the IEA forecasts are worthless; no one the energy industry believes them. I have come to the understanding that the IEA exists for the sole purpose of allowing OECD governments to delegate responsibility for energy matters.

OECD governments don't promote publicly their own opinion on energy, they just defer to the IEA. The situation can’t persist though since the IEA forecasts are coming under increasingly robust challenge and will eventually be abandoned – Sweden appear likely to be the first country to officially rejects the IEA forecasts.
 
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