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July's Crude Oil: 73,596,000 barrells a day

September's "International Petroleum Monthly" has just been released by the EIA in the USA. (see link). The EIA collate crude oil production figures from a number of sources and then make them available both to the US Government and the rest of the world via the web. They are always working in arrears and often the figures they produce are estimates that are adjusted later.

As usual the last figure they have is for July 2005 which is 73.6 Mbbl (as title).

There is a separate calculation for Natural Gas Liquids which is running at 7.6 Mbbl.

The total supply is running at 84 Mbbl.

Like all figures relating to oil supply there are complications. One complication arises from governments not giving full information. Another complication is that not all oil is equivalent which is why you have WTI (West Texas Intermediate) prices and Brent prices. Often specific oils will be priced in relation to WTI or Brent. There are lighter and heavier oils. Some countries count barrells. Other countries (eg the UK) tend to go by weight. Obviously the weight and volume do not have a static relationship as it depends on the density of the oil.

This debate between Kenneth Deffeyes and Peter Odell about Peak Oil raises a number of the key issues.

Kenneth Deffeyes has predicted that global production will peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005 (24th November). That is him having a bit of a laugh, but it is based upon an analysis of the data.

I remain of the view that we will only be certain when peak oil has occurred about 3 years later. What happened with the US peak of oil production (1971) is that the oil cartel control mechanism of the time (The Texas Railroad Commission) said people could produce at maximum about 2 year later and then stopped trying to constrain production.


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