Skip to main content

Another letter to Malcolm Wicks Gas Supplies 20 mcm/d down on last year.

In the National Grid's Winter Outlook report 2005/6 (released 5th October 2005) it states that even with the Liquid Natural Gas imports from the Isle of Grain terminal (estimated at 17mcm/d max) the UK will have 20 mcm/d less natural gas than last winter.

I have heard (but not been able to confirm) that the first scheduled shipment for commissioning the Isle of Grain LNG terminal has been redirected to the USA. This is about 122 mcm of gas (about 10 days supply via the Isle of Grain). In isolation this is not a problem. However, if LNG tankers continue to be redirected to the USA it could exacerbate the tightness of supply this winter.

National Grid predict that if the winter is as cold as 1985/6 (1/20) that to satisfy domestic demand and those other people not metered for gas on a daily basis that a reduction in demand of 2,200,000,000 cubic metres (2.2 bcm) will be required.

They also say that only 0.6 bcm can be found easily as a result of higher prices, but would require a reduction in demand from certain customers for 2 months which they would not be happy to provide.

They forecast a normal demand for electricity of 61.9 GigaWatts (GW) and a cold winter (1/20) demand of 64.9 GW. They expect 72.6 GW UK capacity including 2 GW possible import.

A potential reduction of 944 MW from high energy users could lead to a 2 mcm/d reduction in gas demand from Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), but NG recognise that 'the level of price responsiveness experienced and required to date has only been a fraction of that required to ensure a supply-demand balance in a 1/50 winter.

Para 122 indicates that electricity supply would be sufficient provided there is not a substantial shutdown of CCGT as a response to high gas prices, but that they would handle electricity shortages by reducing the voltage.

There are 39 CCGTs using a maximum of 97.8 mcm/d generating 23.8 GW although 5.7GW can be generated on backup fuel and 3.2 GW are not fueled via the NTS pipelines.

NG do say, however, that 'the scale of potential demand response ... is far in excess of that either required to date or seen to date.' (para 140) This involves a reduction of 5GW in electricity generation.

You, therefore, have two challenges. FIrstly, to consider the issue of redirection of LNG tankers and how that will impact supply which is recognised, but not considered in the National Grid's analysis. Secondly, to look how CCGT demand can be handled given that there is for a 1/50 cold winter weekday an unprecedented requirement for cuts in demand from electricity generation. It would be helpful for NG to perform daily demand modelling for a 1985/6 winter as well.
The link is to the National Grid's Winter Outlook prognostication.


Popular posts from this blog

Homelessness vs Selling Books

Candidates in elections tend to find themselves very busy with lots of things to do.  It is, therefore, necessary to prioritise things to ensure that the important things are dealt with.

To me the issue of homelessness and rough sleeping is an important issue.  Therefore, when Birmingham's Faith Leaders group contacted me to ask me what I would propose and whether I would work with them to make things better I was pleased to respond with my views and indicate that I would work with them after the election.

The Faith Leaders Group (Bishops and other religious leaders in Birmingham) have now sent out their report.

Sadly, according to their report,  I was the only candidate for Yardley to respond.  The group in their report said:

"Particularly disappointing was the lack of response from some of those candidates seeking re-election as MP for their respective constituencies."
It is worth looking at the priorities of my opponent.
Interestingly today she has decided to be at th…

Millionaires and politics

The Labour Party spent most of the last election criticising me for being a successful businessman (aka millionaire). That is business in the private sector employing over 250 people. It is worth looking at the situation for the Labour Candidate now:

For the year 2016-7 Annual Income from Parliament74,962Specifically for her book51,250Other media income etc5,322.82Total declared income131,534.82

Traditionally anyone with an annual income of over £100,000 has been considered to be a millionaire. I did not use my position in parliament to increase my income.

I have been asked for sources for this. This BBC piece looks at how one should define rich. It was written in 2011 so the figures will be slightly out of date. There are perhaps 2 relevant pieces:
"In 1880 a rich person would have had £100,000 in assets or an income of £10,000 a year, he says. About a hundred people a year died leaving £100,000 and by 1910 this was 250 - "a microscopic fraction of the number of death…

The Labour Candidate's Book Promotion Tour and Why It Matters

In the 2015 General Election the Labour Candidate criticised John Hemming for having an external interest and made a pledge that she would be a "Full Time MP for Yardley and my only other job will be mom & carer ...".  Here is a copy of that pledge:

Since that point she has been working on paid Television Programmes and has also written a book. John Hemming has made no secret of the fact that he chairs the board of the company he founded in 1983. This involves one meeting a month. When he was the MP for Yardley he was a full time MP and the Job of being MP for Yardley came first. The Labour candidate has reported 1,274 hours of work other than being an MP in the two years she has been elected and her income in the last year was over £131,000.

Ignoring the question as to how she reconciles that with her "pledge" the question is raised as to what extent her external activity conflicts with the role of Member of Parliament for Yardley. She is supposed to de…