Skip to main content

Another letter to Malcolm Wicks Gas Supplies 20 mcm/d down on last year.

In the National Grid's Winter Outlook report 2005/6 (released 5th October 2005) it states that even with the Liquid Natural Gas imports from the Isle of Grain terminal (estimated at 17mcm/d max) the UK will have 20 mcm/d less natural gas than last winter.

I have heard (but not been able to confirm) that the first scheduled shipment for commissioning the Isle of Grain LNG terminal has been redirected to the USA. This is about 122 mcm of gas (about 10 days supply via the Isle of Grain). In isolation this is not a problem. However, if LNG tankers continue to be redirected to the USA it could exacerbate the tightness of supply this winter.

National Grid predict that if the winter is as cold as 1985/6 (1/20) that to satisfy domestic demand and those other people not metered for gas on a daily basis that a reduction in demand of 2,200,000,000 cubic metres (2.2 bcm) will be required.

They also say that only 0.6 bcm can be found easily as a result of higher prices, but would require a reduction in demand from certain customers for 2 months which they would not be happy to provide.

They forecast a normal demand for electricity of 61.9 GigaWatts (GW) and a cold winter (1/20) demand of 64.9 GW. They expect 72.6 GW UK capacity including 2 GW possible import.

A potential reduction of 944 MW from high energy users could lead to a 2 mcm/d reduction in gas demand from Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), but NG recognise that 'the level of price responsiveness experienced and required to date has only been a fraction of that required to ensure a supply-demand balance in a 1/50 winter.

Para 122 indicates that electricity supply would be sufficient provided there is not a substantial shutdown of CCGT as a response to high gas prices, but that they would handle electricity shortages by reducing the voltage.

There are 39 CCGTs using a maximum of 97.8 mcm/d generating 23.8 GW although 5.7GW can be generated on backup fuel and 3.2 GW are not fueled via the NTS pipelines.

NG do say, however, that 'the scale of potential demand response ... is far in excess of that either required to date or seen to date.' (para 140) This involves a reduction of 5GW in electricity generation.

You, therefore, have two challenges. FIrstly, to consider the issue of redirection of LNG tankers and how that will impact supply which is recognised, but not considered in the National Grid's analysis. Secondly, to look how CCGT demand can be handled given that there is for a 1/50 cold winter weekday an unprecedented requirement for cuts in demand from electricity generation. It would be helpful for NG to perform daily demand modelling for a 1985/6 winter as well.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The link is to the National Grid's Winter Outlook prognostication.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Statement re false allegations from Esther Baker

Statement by John Hemming
I am pleased that the Police have now made it clear that there has been a concerted effort to promote false criminal allegations against me and that the allegations had no substance whatsoever.
I would like to thank Emily Cox, my children, Ayaz Iqbal (my Solicitor), my local lib dem team and many others who supported me through this dreadful experience. There are many worse things that happen to people, but this was a really bad experience.
It is bad enough to have false allegations made about yourself to the police, but to have a concerted campaign involving your political opponents and many others in public creates an environment in which it is reasonable to be concerned about ill founded vigilante attacks on your family and yourself. Luckily there was a more substantial lobby to the contrary as well, which included many people who were themselves real survivors of abuse, which has helped.
I am normally someone who helps other people fight injustice. …

R v SUSSEX JUSTICES ex p McCARTHY [1924] 1 KB 256

I have only just found this one which I think is accurately reported below (but if it is not please give me an accurate report).

KING’S BENCH DIVISION

R v SUSSEX JUSTICES ex p McCARTHY [1924] 1 KB 256

November 9 1923

Editor’s comments in bold.

Here, the magistrates’ clerk retired with the bench when they were considering a charge of dangerous driving. The clerk belonged to a firm of solicitors acting in civil proceedings for the other party to the accident. It was entirely irrelevant that there had been no evidence of actual influence brought to bear on the magistrates, and the conviction was duly quashed.

LORD HEWART CJ:
It is clear that the deputy clerk was a member of the firm of solicitors engaged in the conduct of proceedings for damages against the applicant in respect of the same collision as that which gave rise to the charge that the justices were considering. It is said, and, no doubt, truly, that when that gentleman retired in the usual way with the justices, taking with him the…

Statement re Police investigation into Harassment and Perverting the Course of Justice.

It was recently reported that the police were not investigating the allegations of Perverting the Course of Justice that I had made. This came as a surprise to me as I had been told for some time that my allegations were to be considered once the VRR had been rejected. I have now had a very constructive meeting with Staffordshire police on Friday 29th June 2018 and the misunderstandings have been resolved. At that meeting the evidence relating to the perversion of the course of justice and the harassment campaign against my family were discussed. The police have decided to investigate both the perversion of the course of justice and also the harassment campaign. I would like to thank them for changing their decision and I accept their apology for the way in which they did that. I am also in possession of written confirmation a police force would be investigating allegations that a vulnerable witness has been harassed for trying to expose the campaign against me. I hope that the aut…