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The gas supply issue

Because it is cold the issue of gas supply has come to the fore again. In part that is because a free market works well when it is a buyers market, but with a sellers market weak market participants (aka people without a lot of money) tend to lose out.

Even if we don't have any more complex crisis this winter we are still likely to see an increase on gas bills.

The underlying problem is that the great variability of demand is linked to the weather.

National Grid, who are responsible for managing the gas supply, calculate a figure as to what the weather is like from the perspective of gas demand. They then fit that to a chart which indicates how cold they think things are. This is the chart at today's date:
2010 01 06 weather graph
You will note that in fact it is not as cold as a cold winter at the moment. They also measure the demand against predicted demand and here is another chart:
2010 01 06 demand graph
Note on this that although it is not as cold as a "cold winter" the demand is as high as one would get in a cold winter.

There is then the supply from Liguid Natural Gas, the fields on the UK continental shelf and via pipelines in from Norway, Holland and Belgium. The Belgian pipeline (the interconnector) can go both ways. We also export gas to Ireland.

On top of gas supplied on a day there is gas taken from storage. It is possible to make an estimate as to the maximum gas that can be supplied. That is called the Gas Balancing Alert Trigger level which is currently 461.2 million cubic metres (in a day).

We only have a couple of days of gas available in short range storage which can supply around 30 mcm of gas in a day. Hence we have a potential gas supply problem.

At the moment things are OK and it is not certain that there will be a problem. I have kept for some time a gas issues weblog which is the link above

I have been nervous about the gas storage situation since 2005. It is like driving blindfold on a cliff. You might go over the edge, but also you might not. Actually this all depends upon the weather.

If this winter really is that cold then we face some real challenges. Some of the Combined Cycle Gas Turbine power stations can switch to oil. Otherwise coal is being used to a greater extent.

What you cannot do is to switch off the gas. That is because when it comes to switching it on again every building needs to be checked to avoid explosions. That takes a long time.


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Statement re false allegations from Esther Baker

Statement by John Hemming
I am pleased that the Police have now made it clear that there has been a concerted effort to promote false criminal allegations against me and that the allegations had no substance whatsoever.
I would like to thank Emily Cox, my children, Ayaz Iqbal (my Solicitor), my local lib dem team and many others who supported me through this dreadful experience. There are many worse things that happen to people, but this was a really bad experience.
It is bad enough to have false allegations made about yourself to the police, but to have a concerted campaign involving your political opponents and many others in public creates an environment in which it is reasonable to be concerned about ill founded vigilante attacks on your family and yourself. Luckily there was a more substantial lobby to the contrary as well, which included many people who were themselves real survivors of abuse, which has helped.
I am normally someone who helps other people fight injustice. …

R v SUSSEX JUSTICES ex p McCARTHY [1924] 1 KB 256

I have only just found this one which I think is accurately reported below (but if it is not please give me an accurate report).


R v SUSSEX JUSTICES ex p McCARTHY [1924] 1 KB 256

November 9 1923

Editor’s comments in bold.

Here, the magistrates’ clerk retired with the bench when they were considering a charge of dangerous driving. The clerk belonged to a firm of solicitors acting in civil proceedings for the other party to the accident. It was entirely irrelevant that there had been no evidence of actual influence brought to bear on the magistrates, and the conviction was duly quashed.

It is clear that the deputy clerk was a member of the firm of solicitors engaged in the conduct of proceedings for damages against the applicant in respect of the same collision as that which gave rise to the charge that the justices were considering. It is said, and, no doubt, truly, that when that gentleman retired in the usual way with the justices, taking with him the…

Statement re Police investigation into Harassment and Perverting the Course of Justice.

It was recently reported that the police were not investigating the allegations of Perverting the Course of Justice that I had made. This came as a surprise to me as I had been told for some time that my allegations were to be considered once the VRR had been rejected. I have now had a very constructive meeting with Staffordshire police on Friday 29th June 2018 and the misunderstandings have been resolved. At that meeting the evidence relating to the perversion of the course of justice and the harassment campaign against my family were discussed. The police have decided to investigate both the perversion of the course of justice and also the harassment campaign. I would like to thank them for changing their decision and I accept their apology for the way in which they did that. I am also in possession of written confirmation a police force would be investigating allegations that a vulnerable witness has been harassed for trying to expose the campaign against me. I hope that the aut…