John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Friday, September 25, 2009
  Swine Flu fortnightly report
This report from NHS West Midlands shows that the rate of new cases of swine flu has begun to increase across the region. Information provided indicates current impact on the local services.

Key Messages
Across the West Midlands there has been an increase in patients presenting at primary care centres with influenza-like symptoms. This is not impacting on normal service delivery and there has not been an increase in cases admitted to hospital in the last week.

Activity /Rates – GPs
This shows the number of patients attending primary care with influenza-like illness, taken from the latest Health Protection Agency QSurveillance data. This data indicates an increase for the week ending 20 September 2009, across England, West Midlands and within Birmingham East and North.

The reported rate of GP consultations per 100,000 population within the West Midlands for the week was 15 (compared with 11.9 for the previous week).

West Midlands average 15.0 (per 100,000)
England and Wales rates 16.5 (per 100,000)
NHS Birmingham East and North 18.9 (per 100,000)

Number of Hospital Admissions
The total number of new admissions with swine flu admitted to hospitals in the West Midlands for the period 17 September to 23 September 2009 is 37. As of 23 September, there were 11 people in hospital.

Number of Swine Flu Related Deaths
There have been no swine flu-related deaths reported since our previous report. The total number of deaths for the region remains at nine.

Update on Anti-Viral Collection Points (ACPs)
Total number of Antiviral Collection Points planned for the Local Health Economy: 10
Currently open: 1 (Stechford)

The PCT currently has one ACP open which is in line with the current level of need. Plans are in place to open more collection points to meet any increase in demand.
Total number of assessments via the National Flu Pandemic Service (West Midlands): 121,632
Total number of antivirals collected (West Midlands): 57,549

Schools
There are a small number of schools across the West Midlands reporting absenteeism in children with flu like symptoms since the beginning of the Autumn term. In some of these schools, swine flu has been confirmed. This is not unexpected and our surveillance and early warning systems have been helpful in identifying these cases. Every school and early years setting in the West Midlands has now been provided with swine flu information and advice.

Public Health Message
The National Pandemic Flu Service has been launched to ensure that people with flu or flu-like symptoms are able to get advice and help. The service is made up of a dedicated website and call centres which provide people with a quick way to check their symptoms and get access to antiviral drugs. For most people, swine flu is not a serious illness and they should start to feel better after a few days without needing to go to their GP or A&E.
 
  Election Results 24th September 2009
North Tyneside MBC, Preston
Con 1141 (55.8; -14.2)
Lab 503 (24.6; -5.3)
Public Services not Private Profit 174 (8.5; +8.5)
LD John Christopher Appleby 152 (7.4; +7.4)
Green 73 (3.6; +3.6)
Majority 638
Turnout not known
Con hold
Percentage change is since May 2008
Party defending seat: Con. Cause: Resignation.

Tendring DC, Burrsville
Con 455 (55.2; -10.5)
LD Joyce Edith O'Brien 227 (27.5; +15.7)
Lab 90 (10.9; +1.1)
Green 52 (6.3; +6.3)
[Others (0.0; -12.6)]
Majority 228
Turnout 46%
Con hold
Percentage change is since May 2007.
Party defending seat: Con. Cause: Death.

Hartlepool BC, Elwick
Ind 233 / 132 / 28 (60.4; -24.2)
Con 201 (30.9; +30.9)
Lab 40 (6.1; -9.3)
LD Keith Macfadyen 17 (2.6; +2.6)
Majority 32
Turnout 29.24%
Ind hold
Percentage change is since May 2006
Party defending seat: Ind. Cause: Death.

Broxtowe BC, Toton and Chilwell Meadows
Con 1081 (56.6; +8.3)
LD Robert Pembleton 474 (24.8; -0.3)
Lab 296 (15.5; +1.3)
BNP 58 (3.0; -4.1)
[UKIP (0.0; -5.2)]
Majority 607
Turnout not known
Con hold
Percentage change is since May 2007
Party defending seat: Con. Cause: Resignation.

Three Rivers DC, Hayling
Lab 487 (53.9; +21.7)
Con 190 (21.0; -4.6)
BNP 170 (18.8; -11.5)
LD Dennis John Rogers 56 (6.2; -1.4)
[UKIP (0.0; -4.1)]
Majority 297
Turnout 34.96%
Lab hold
Percentage change is since May 2008
Party defending seat: Lab. Cause: Resignation.
 
Monday, September 21, 2009
  Conference 2009
I left Birmingham for the conference after my advice bureau (as usual). It is good that we continue to concentrate on the issue of the tax threshold for people in work, but on low incomes.

The government are in a financial mess. I have been trying to work out how they have been funding "quantative easing". Initially I thought it was funded directly, but it now looks like it is not funded. It is interesting to see to what extent this is sustainable.

It remains that a massive continuing deficit is not sustainable. My concern is to ensure that we protect services whilst going through a difficult period.

I have spoken at two fringe meetings about Social work and Child Protection. It is good that there is a dialogue between those critical of the system and those who work in it. In fact there is common ground as to what systematic problems there are. In particular the performance indicators and the integrated childrens system come in for some serious criticism.

What happens is that this results in wrong decisions being taken and then forced through the family courts.

I am also speaking at a fringe meeting about Social Inclusion. Although the tax changes help here we really need to deal with the issue of those people who are basically clients of the state.
 
Friday, September 18, 2009
  Election Results: 17th September 2009
Buckinghamshire CC, Amersham
Conservative 1840 (46.6; -3.7)
Lib Dem Davida Allen 1768 (44.8; 0.0)
UKIP 140 (3.5; +3.5)
Labour 106 (2.7, -2.2)
Green 95 (2.4; +2.4)

Conservative HOLD
Majority 72
Turnout 30.6

Newark and Sherwood DC, Beacon
Conservative 413 (48.2; - 0.7)
Lib Dem Decland Logue 296 (34.7; +7.8)
Labour 147 (17.2; -7.1)

Consvative HOLD
Majority 117
Turnout 16.6

Nottinghamshire CC, Newark East
Conservative 517 (45.2; -6.4)
Lib Dem Chris Harrison 322 (28.1; - 2.3)
Labour 198 (17.3; -0.7)
UKIP 107 (9.4; +9.4)

Conservative HOLD
Majority 195
Turnout 15.6

Birmingham City MBC, Sparkbrook
Respect 2495 (39.6; -7.0)
Labour 2228 (35.4; -1.3)
Conservative 799 (12.7; +7.5)
Lib Dem Maeem Quarefhi 506 (8.0; +1.5)
Green 213 (3.4 +3.4)
Independent 55 (0.9 +0.9)
BNP 0 (0; -1.5)

Turnout 32.3
Majority 267
Respect HOLD

Redcar and Cleveland UA, South Bank
Labour 442 (43.6; -6.9)
Lib Dem Steven Abbot 354 (34.9; +25.1)
Ind 102 (10.1; -5.0)
UKIP 69 (6.8; +6.8)
Conservative 47 (4.6; -5.7)
BNP 0 (0; -14.4)

Labour HOLD
Majority 88
Turnout 21.2

Cotswold DC, Water Park
Liberal Democrat Esmond Jenkins 894 (71.7; +31.5)
Con 353 (28.3; -31.5)
Lib Dem HOLD
Majority 541
Turnout 28.3

Amber Valley BC, Ripley and Marehay
Labour 585 (52.4)
Conservative 531 (47.6)
Labour HOLD
Majority 54
Turnout 24.1

Rustington PC, West Rustington
Ind 661 (61.9)
Lib Dem Jamie Bennett 406 (38.1)

Independent GAIN from Conservative
 
Friday, September 11, 2009
  Election Results 10th September 2009
York City UA, Heworth
Lab 876 (34.0; -2.6)
LD Jennifer Ayre 608 (23.6; +11.5)
Con 591 (23.0; +2.3)
Green 302 (11.7; -6.1)
BNP 172 (6.7; -6.0)
Official Monster Raving Loony Party 25 (1.0; +1.0)
Majority 268
Turnout 26.6%
Lab hold
Percentage change is since May 2007

Daventry DC, Drayton
Counting Friday morning, result expected at 2pm.

South Tyneside MBC, Westoe
Ind 694 / 194 (39.2; -26.4)
Lab 567 (25.0; +6.1)
Con 320 (14.1; +3.3)
BNP 266 (11.7; +11.7)
LD William John Troupe 225 (9.9; +9.9)
Majority 127
Turnout 34.5%
Ind hold
Percentage change is since May 2008

Leicester City UA, Castle
Lab 611 (31.7; +5.1)
Green 519 (26.9; -8.6)
Con 435 (22.6; +7.2)
LD Joan Garrity 292 (15.1; -3.1)
UKIP 41 (2.1; -0.5)
Liberal 31 (1.6; -0.1)
Majority 92
Turnout 12.65%
Lab gain from Green
Percentage change is since May 2007

Harborough DC, Market Harborough Welland
LD Colin Davies 600 (54.8; +7.1)
Con 373 (34.1; +5.3)
BNP 122 (11.1; +11.1)
[Lab (0.0; -23.5)]
Majority 227
Turnout 22.8%
LD hold
Percentage change is since May 2007

Stockport MBC, Cheadle and Gatley
LD Iain Roberts 2625 (52.9; +7.5)
Con 2005 (40.4; -5.4)
Lab 143 (2.9; -5.9)
UKIP 96 (1.9; +1.9)
Green 91 (1.8; +1.8)
Majority 620
Turnout 43.9%
LD hold
Percentage change is since May 2008

Daventry DC, Yelvertoft
Counting Friday morning, result expected Friday afternoon.

Party defending seat: Con. Cause: Resignation.

Wyre Forest BC, Lickhill
Community and Health Concern 643 (48.1; -1.5)
Con 512 (38.3; -1.6)
Lab 140 (10.5; 0.0)
LD Claire Cassidy 41 (3.1; +3.1)
Majority 131
Turnout 24.44%
Ind hold
Percentage change is since May 2008

Rayleigh TC, Whitehouse
Con 488 (69.0)
LD Corey Vost 166 (23.0)
BNP 57 (8.0)
Majority 322
Turnout 22%
 
  Swine Flu weekly report
Please note that until further notice, these briefings will be issued on a fortnightly basis.

Introduction
This week’s report from NHS West Midlands shows that the rate of new cases of swine flu continues to slow across the region. Information provided indicates current impact on the local services.
Key Messages
Patients presenting at primary care centres with influenza-like symptoms has decreased within the health economy over the last week. The number of people with swine flu admitted to hospitals in West Midlands has increased this week.
Activity /Rates – GPs
This shows the number of patients attending primary care with influenza-like illness, taken from the latest Health Protection Agency QSurveillance data. This data indicates a decrease for the week ending 6 September 2009, across England, West Midlands and within Birmingham East and North.

The reported rate of GP consultations per 100,000 population within the West Midlands for the week was 11.4 (compared with 14 for the previous week).

West Midlands average 11.4 (per 100,000)
England and Wales rates 10.6 (per 100,000)
NHS Birmingham East and North 10.3 (per 100,000)

Number of Hospital Admissions
The total number of new admissions with swine flu admitted to hospitals in the West Midlands for the period 3 September to 9 September 2009 is 41. As of 9 September, there were 20 people in hospital.

Number of Swine Flu Related Deaths
There have been no swine flu-related deaths reported for the week 3 September to 9 September 2009 within the West Midlands. The total number of deaths for the region remains at nine.

Update on Anti-Viral Collection Points (ACPs)
Total number of Antiviral Collection Points planned for the Local Health Economy: 10
Currently open: 1 (Stechford)

The PCT currently has one ACP open which is in line with the current level of need. Plans are in place to open more collection points to meet any increase in demand.
Total number of assessments via the National Flu Pandemic Service (West Midlands): 109,431
Total number of antivirals collected (West Midlands): 51,678

Public Health Message
A new National Pandemic Flu Service has been launched to ensure that people with flu or flu-like symptoms are able to get advice and help. The new service is made up of a dedicated website and call centres which provide people with a quick way to check their symptoms and get access to antiviral drugs. For most people, swine flu is not a serious illness and they should start to feel better after a few days without needing to go to their GP or A&E.

National announcements this week
Critical Care
Following a review of NHS critical care capacity, and plans to increase this capacity if necessary during a pandemic, a critical care strategy has been published today. The document sets out how the NHS will double ventilated critical care capacity during the peak of a potential second wave of the swine flu pandemic. It outlines a series of whole system measures that can be put in place, including measures to minimise demand for critical care.
To support the NHS with this work, a new Swine Flu Critical Care Clinical Group made up of a number of independent experts in delivering critical care has been formed. This group will provide a dedicated, expert resource for the NHS for the duration of the swine flu pandemic. Every NHS region, including NHS West Midlands, has confirmed that it can double available critical care capacity should it need to.

Mental Health Act Consultation
To further strengthen our resilience, the Department of Health has today published a consultation on possible temporary changes to the Mental Health Act, 1983. During the peak of a pandemic, when the workforce is likely to be under considerable pressure, these changes would enable Strategic Health Authorities to provide continuity of service. For more information, visit: http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/News/Recentstories/DH_104971.

Comment by John Hemming
There has been a lot of hype about Swine Flu going up when the schools kick off, which they just have, but the PCT are going down to fortnightly. Something does not compute.
 
  MG Rover Report
The report has now been released. It confirms a number of things.

It confirms the substantial sums of money which in my view should not have been removed from the group whilst it was being managed by the directors although it makes it clear that one of the directors was uncomfortable about this.

It also confirms that the community were squeezed out of the bid which initially involved more than 4 key players.

It recognises that the governments revelation of financial problems resulted in pushing the company into administration in 2005 - although it was most likely heading into administration at that time.

It also recognises that the alternative to Phoenix in 2000 was liquidation (although it could have been possible to have a further review with Alchemy).

What is sad about all of this is that it could have been a lot different. What the report reveals is that there were a number of solutions after 2000 when it would have been possible for the business to continue over time.

The damage done by the directors in chucking out a gold plated lifeboat every year or so undermined the project as a whole. The alternative model was clearly a possibility had the government not acquiesced in the squeezing out of people such as Mike Whitby, Carl Chinn and myself.
 
Tuesday, September 08, 2009
  Martin Narey is wrong.
John Hemming MP, Chairman of Justice for Families, has struck out at Martin
Narey for his suggestion that more babies should be taken into care and that
more adoptions is the solution to prevent situations like that in Edlington.

"Martin Narey demonstrates a lack of knowledge of the stastical realities
as to what has happening in England. The number of babies taken into care
under 1 month has jumped from 430 in 1995 to 1,140 in 2006. Of the 1,140 in
2006 670 were taken into care in the first seven days of their life
essentially "at birth".

"He also makes the assumption that once a child is adopted all is good.
Sadly the government are turning a blind eye to the number of disrupted
adoptions. In 2006 6,000 children under 10 years old were taken into care
and 3,520 children under 10 left care through adoption. That means 59% of
children leaving care through adoption.

"The government themselves said this year that "This does not mean that adoption is appropriate for more than a minority of children"

"The government have refused to attempt to find out how many adoptions
result in children returning to care. It is quite clear that Reactive
Attachment Disorder affects a number of children taken into care at an early
age and then adopted at or around 2-3 years old. This often results in a
disrupted adoption and a child returning to care with additional
psychological trauma.

"There are statistics about the numbers of failed adoptions where the
adoption fails in the same local authority as it occurs, but this is only a
small part of the story. Channel 4 recently identified that the number of
failed adoptions is increasing. Martin Narey, however, repeats the mantra
"More adoptions, More adoptions".

"Our policy making really should be evidence based. For that we need the
research. That is where the government are failing.

"Martin Narey should not look at adoption as a solution for the chidlren in
Edlington. It is not in any way clear that the outcome for children aged 10
and 11 could be predicted reliably before they were born. The question
about Edlington is why there was no response at an earlier age of 5 or 6.
I think that arises from the concentration on babies and adoption that the
system now has. We need to change direction rather than go further in a direction
that is clearly failing."
 
Friday, September 04, 2009
  Election Results 3rd September 2009
Medway UA, Luton & Wayfield
Con 1042 (36.9; +10.8)
Lab 1038 (36.7; -12.3)
LD Gary Allanach 223 (7.9; +7.9)
UKIP 200 (7.1; +7.1)
BNP 186 (6.6; +6.6)
Ind 87 (3.1; -21.9)
Green 51 (1.8; +1.8)
Majority 4
Turnout 29.78%
Con gain from Lab
Percentage change is since May 2007

Wiltshire UA, Southwick
Ind 385 (37.2; +37.2)
LD Gordon King 315 (30.5; -8.8)
Con 273 (26.4; -34.3)
UKIP 61 (5.9; +5.9)
Majority 70
Turnout 30.66%
Ind gain from Con
Percentage change is since June 2009

Plymouth City UA, Ham
Lab 1243 (44.0; +2.7)
Con 676 (23.9; -15.7)
UKIP 442 (15.6; +15.6)
BNP 82 (2.9; +2.9)
Ind 204 (7.2; +7.2)
LD Rebecca Trimnell 181 (6.4; -6.8)
[Green (0.0; -5.9)]
Majority 567
Turnout 29%
Lab hold
Percentage change is since May 2008

Stamford TC, St Georges
Ind 243 (42.4)
Con 135 (23.6)
LD Raymond Donald Lee 115 (20.1)
No Description 80 (14.0)
Majority 108
Turnout 17.7%
Ind hold

Party defending seat: Ind. Cause: Death.

Oswestry TC, Castle
Con 214 (61.3)
LD Brain L Willis 135 (38.7)
Majority 79
Turnout 15.46%
Con hold

Malvern Hills DC, Hallow
LD Dean Clarke 504 (61.6; +16.5)
Con 314 (38.4; -16.5)
Majority 190
Turnout not known
LD gain from Con
Percentage change is since May 2007

Melksham TC, Melksham Spa
LD Peter Dauncey 732 (58.8)
Con 432 (34.7)
BNP 81 (6.5)
Majority 300
Turnout 26%
LD gain from Con
Party defending seat: Con. Cause: Resignation.

Chippenham TC, Chippenham Park
LD Lorraine Roberts-Rance 427 (66.4)
Con 216 (33.6)
Majority 211
Turnout 30.03%
LD hold
Party defending seat: LD. Cause: Resignation.

Wootton Bassett TC, North
LD Stephen Richard Walls 423 (56.0)
Con 333 (44.0)
Majority 90
Turnout 22%
LD gain from Con
Part defending seat: Con. Cause: Disqualification.

Calne TC, Quemerford
Con 299 (53.9)
LD Sally Ann Chandler 256 (46.1)
Majority 43
Turnout 29.8%
Con hold
Party defending seat: Con. Cause: Resignation.
 
  Swine Flu weekly report
Introduction
This week’s report from NHS West Midlands shows that the rate of new cases of swine flu continues to slow across the region. Information provided indicates current impact on the local services.
Key Messages
Patients presenting at primary care centres with influenza-like symptoms has decreased within the health economy over the last week. The number of people with swine flu admitted to hospitals in West Midlands has also fallen this week.
Activity /Rates – GPs
This shows the number of patients attending primary care with influenza-like illness, taken from the latest Health Protection Agency QSurveillance data. This data indicates a significant decrease for the week ending 30 August 2009, across England, West Midlands and within Birmingham East and North.

The reported rate of GP consultations per 100,000 population within the West Midlands for the week was 14.0 (compared with 20.3 for the previous week).

West Midlands average 14.0 (per 100,000)
England and Wales rates 14.0 (per 100,000)
NHS Birmingham East and North 17.5 (per 100,000)

Number of Hospital Admissions
The total number of new admissions with swine flu admitted to hospitals in the West Midlands for the period 27 August to 2 September 2009 is 32. As of 2 September, there were 17 people in hospital.

Number of Swine Flu Related Deaths
There have been no swine flu-related deaths reported for the week 27 August to 2 September 2009 within the West Midlands. The total number of deaths for the region remains at nine.

Update on Anti-Viral Collection Points (ACPs)
Total number of Antiviral Collection Points planned for the Local Health Economy: 10
Currently open: 1 (Stechford)

The PCT currently has one ACP open which is in line with the current level of need. Plans are in place to open more collection points to meet any increase in demand.
Total number of assessments via the National Flu Pandemic Service (West Midlands): 105,104
Total number of antivirals collected (West Midlands): 49,582

Please see the briefing provided last week for a map showing locations of Anti-Viral Collection Points within the West Midlands.

Vaccination Programme

The swine flu vaccination programme commences in the autumn and will initially focus on vaccinating people from priority groups across England including:

1.People aged over six months and under 65 years in current seasonal flu vaccine clinical at-risk groups (about 5 million people).
2.All pregnant women, subject to licensing conditions on trimesters (about 0.5 million people).
3.Household contacts of people with compromised immune systems e.g. people in regular close contact with patients on treatment for cancer (about 0.5 million people).
4.People aged 65 and over in the current seasonal flu vaccine clinical at-risk groups (about 3.5 million people). This does not include otherwise healthy over 65s, since they appear to have some natural immunity to the virus.

Vaccination of frontline health and social care workers (approximately 2 million people) will begin at the same time as the first at-risk group, and will continue for as long as necessary.

Public Health Message
A new National Pandemic Flu Service has been launched to ensure that people with flu or flu-like symptoms are able to get advice and help. The new service is made up of a dedicated website and call centres which provide people with a quick way to check their symptoms and get access to antiviral drugs. For most people, swine flu is not a serious illness and they should start to feel better after a few days without needing to go to their GP or A&E.
 

Click Here for access to higher resolution versions of the photos The license for use allows use of the photos by media as long as they are attributed.

better brent chart

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