John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Sunday, June 08, 2008
  Oil Supply and Demand May Analysis
 
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Supply 79.6154 83.1243 84.6315 84.5983 84.5944
Demand 79.6118 82.3301 83.6498 84.6225 85.3543

Difference 0.0036 0.7942 0.9817 -0.0242 -0.7599

Quarters 1/7 2/7 3/7 4/7 1/8 2/8 3/8 4/8
Supply 84.20 84.37 84.33 85.49 85.86 86.17 87.18 87.17
Demand 85.36 84.48 85.08 86.66 86.34 85.73 86.45 87.80
OPEC Demand 85.79 86.98 85.75 86.60 88.45 (their estimates)
Difference -1.16 -0.11 -0.75 -1.17 -0.48 0.44 0.73 -0.63

Monthly USA Gulf OAPEC OPEC World NGL OPEC
2007 Dec 8,669 23,886 25,067 36,612 85,765 Dec 4.40 32.3300
2008 Jan 8,624 24,013 25,113 36,649 85,674 Jan 4.93 32.0900
2008 Feb 8,625 24,242 25,341 36,881 85,921 Feb 4.93 32.2300
2008 Ave 8,625 24,124 25,223 36,761 85,793 Mar 4.93 32.4500

April Opec (not NGL) 31.70


All of the figures are in Millions of Barrels a Day and come from a range of industry sources. The first problem in getting reliable statistics is that not all oils are the same. Hence you have have different figures for entirely good reasons. However, when looking for the balance between supply and demand as long as the figures you use have consistent assumptions then you are OK. Secondly the EIA figures (my main source) are produced in arrears and modified.

Note particularly the following supply figures 2005-84.6315 2006-84.5983 2007-84.5944 and that Oil production peaked there in 2005 and has gradually reduced whereas consumption has increased (hence the stock draw down). The question as to what extent production increases in 2008. It looks on these figures that production in 2008 is more likely than not to exceed that than in 2005.

This is the M$ peak oil question, however. Although there are detailed causes for constraints on production (strikes etc) the overall constraint is geological. There will, however, be demand destruction (airlines going bust etc) so demand is not that likely to keep up to the estimates.
 
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