Friday, May 05, 2006
Labour vote fragments in Birmingham
An initial glance at the results for Birmingham shows the Labour vote fragmenting.
For example they lost the Moseley and Kings Heath seat to the Lib Dems. Labour had only 31% of the vote. However, the opposition to Labour was fragmented and we had about 33% of the vote - enough to win, however.
Because of the boundary changes comparisons need to be made to the all up elections, but that is relatively difficult because sometimes parties (eg UKIP, Green, BNP) only put up 1 candidate in those situations.
There are two comparison techniques the largest vote technique and the percentage of overall vote technique. Both of these have their problems. posted by John Hemming ¶ 7:53 am
For example they lost the Moseley and Kings Heath seat to the Lib Dems. Labour had only 31% of the vote. However, the opposition to Labour was fragmented and we had about 33% of the vote - enough to win, however.
Because of the boundary changes comparisons need to be made to the all up elections, but that is relatively difficult because sometimes parties (eg UKIP, Green, BNP) only put up 1 candidate in those situations.
There are two comparison techniques the largest vote technique and the percentage of overall vote technique. Both of these have their problems. posted by John Hemming ¶ 7:53 am
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I see that your Nechells candidate didn't get elected. I take it that it means you vote fraud investigation will be swept under the carpet now.
John
Your party suffered a very poor night picking up only 9 out of 40 seats and failing to gain several target seets. You are clearly on the retreat in inner city Birmingham and the highs of 2003 seem some time ago. Both Labour and the Conservatives will be fairly happy with the results where as your party is not. Don't insult people's inteligence by acting otherwise.
Your party suffered a very poor night picking up only 9 out of 40 seats and failing to gain several target seets. You are clearly on the retreat in inner city Birmingham and the highs of 2003 seem some time ago. Both Labour and the Conservatives will be fairly happy with the results where as your party is not. Don't insult people's inteligence by acting otherwise.
The issue in the inner city is the intervention of Respect. In Lozells Lib Dem and Respect was about 3,000 against Labour 3,300.
In Springfield Labour's majority over Lib Dem was about 500 and Respect got about 1700 votes.
Sparkbrook is more complex.
In Aston the Respect Intervention did not have the same effect, however.
The nature of Inner City politics, however, is that party allegiences are only a part of the story.
In Springfield Labour's majority over Lib Dem was about 500 and Respect got about 1700 votes.
Sparkbrook is more complex.
In Aston the Respect Intervention did not have the same effect, however.
The nature of Inner City politics, however, is that party allegiences are only a part of the story.
Having checked the results there are more 3rd and 4th positions than 2nd or 1st. One thing I am proud of, at least when I was the candidate in Stockland Green I never ended up with a pathetic vote behind the BNP! John, put your hands in the air and admit that is was a poor night for the Lib Dems in Birmingham
Of course the Respect was part of the story in a handful of wards but that doesn't make the result any better for you. 9 out of 40 wards is a poor result. Your assertion that only the Lib Dem's can beat Labour looks increasingly absurd.
Anyway. Only a week ago you said you had a chance in Tyburn yet you actually finished fourth. Cllr Holtum probable isn't too cherful this morning.
Anyway. Only a week ago you said you had a chance in Tyburn yet you actually finished fourth. Cllr Holtum probable isn't too cherful this morning.
In John's defence there were some good LD results in wards they were defending - Perry Barr, Selly Oak and Bordesley, all hitherto fairly marginal wards which now look secure for them. However, there's no doubt that their performance in their target seats was fairly disastrous. Even the solitary gain in Moseley was more marginal than it ought to have been.
John's assessment of early yesterday evening that 'this is a very good night for the Alden family' looks a more honest summary.
John's assessment of early yesterday evening that 'this is a very good night for the Alden family' looks a more honest summary.
Selly Oak and Perry Barr marginal?
As for Moseley, let's hope Zaman Khan remembers the precious little help he got. But then again, he doesn't work for John, does he?
As for Moseley, let's hope Zaman Khan remembers the precious little help he got. But then again, he doesn't work for John, does he?
"Selly Oak and Perry Barr marginal?"
In terms of the gap between third and fourth place in those wards in 2004, yes. Given the solidity of the Labour vote elsewhere you might have expected them to be closer this time. But I'm not interested in talking up the Lib Dems, just pointing out that their results weren't uniformly poor.
In terms of the gap between third and fourth place in those wards in 2004, yes. Given the solidity of the Labour vote elsewhere you might have expected them to be closer this time. But I'm not interested in talking up the Lib Dems, just pointing out that their results weren't uniformly poor.
Ah, but the idea is to also take seats, not just hold the ones you've got or play 'win one, lose one'.
Now take a look at the results and tell me whether you think,out of 40 wards, coming nowhere in 25 of those wards, 15 of which are below the BNP vote, that is doing well?
I don't think so!
Now take a look at the results and tell me whether you think,out of 40 wards, coming nowhere in 25 of those wards, 15 of which are below the BNP vote, that is doing well?
I don't think so!
I have not looked through all of the seats as yet. We have made good progress in terms of support in marginal seats such as Selly Oak and Perry Barr.
Hodge Hill remains a good target seat as do others, but the opposition to Labour was fragmented.
Hodge Hill remains a good target seat as do others, but the opposition to Labour was fragmented.
If you look at the citywide figures at the equivalent place in the previous parliaments Labour's vote has dropped over 10% and our vote has gone up a bit. The tory vote has also dropped.
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