John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Friday, February 10, 2006
  Dunfermline and Birmingham
The excellent result in Dunfermline shows that we are making further progress against Labour. In Birmingham that is good news for the Lib Dems in Yardley, Hodge Hill, Hall Green, Ladywood and Perry Barr each of which is a clear Lib Dem/Labour battleground.
 
Comments:
Hodge Hill?

*cough*

"LIBERAL Democrats are jumping ship to Labour because they disapprove of the recent revelations regarding Charles Kennedy and Simon Hughes's private lives, a defector warned.

The Lib Dems succeeded in reaching out to Muslims because of their opposition to the Iraq war, contributing to their record election result last year when they won 62 seats.

But revelations about former leader Charles Kennedy and leadership contender Simon Hughes could repel Muslims, according to Mohammed Aikhlaq, the former vice-chairman of the Lib Dems in Hodge Hill, Birmingham.

He has switched sides and joined the Labour Party, along with Ishtiaq Ali, former chairman of the Hodge Hill branch, and six local activists."

http://icbirmingham.icnetwork.co.uk/mail/news/tm_objectid=16675630%26method=full%26siteid=50002-name_page.html
 
The original story about these people was in The Times which accepted that they had decided to jump ship in December before all the stuff about CK.

In any event we have about twice as many people going the other way which may not be such a big press story, but impacts on election support.
 
Not sure I want to welcome Muslims who join the Party on the basis of homophobia, anyway.
 
Twice as many going the other way? You seem to forget that one of your biggest recruit finders is now an Independant Councillor. How many Muslim supporters did he take with him?
Also, the asians who joined in Stockland Green are gradually slipping back to Labour.
 
Ladywood - 6801 majority
Hodge Hill - 5449 majority
Hall Green - 5714 majority (LDs in third place, 10,000 votes behind the winner)
Perry Barr - 7948 majority
Yardley - 2672 between LD and Labour.

I've not run the detailed figures for the new ward structure, but I doubt it will make any huge difference. Out of those, only one is a battleground in any true sense.

Bring it on.
 
The new Hall Green contains only one ward from the old Hall Green.
 
Hall Green could be very close. Anthony Wells gives Labour a notional majority of 4,375. That's far from safe.
 
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