Skip to main content

Australian Government Peak Oil Report

The link is to a copy of a report produced by the Australian Government in 2009 which was then as far as I can tell sat on and removed from the list of reports.

The summary includes the following:
The trends in discovery of oil can be used to project similar trends in the subsequent
production of oil. Using a method developed here, forecasts of future oil/liquids
production for 40 countries/regions around the world have been produced.
The oil production prospects of different countries and regions vary immensely.
However, on balance, when an aggregation is done across the globe, it is predicted
that world production of conventional oil is currently just past its highest point
(conventional oil is oil pumped from wells on land or in water less than 500 metres
deep). A predicted shallow decline in the short run should give way to a steeper
decline after 2016.
However, deep water and non-conventional oil production are growing strongly,
turning a slight decline into a plateau for total crude oil (non-conventional oil is heavy
and viscose or indeed tar-like oil). Given the growth in deep and non-conventional
balancing the shallow decline in conventional production, it is predicted that we
have entered about 2006 onto a slightly upward slanting plateau in potential oil
production that will last only to about 2016—eight years from now (2008). For the
next eight years it is likely that world crude oil production will plateau in the face
of continuing economic growth. After that, the modelling is forecasting what can
be termed ‘the 2017 drop-off’. The outlook under a base case scenario is for a long
decline in oil production to begin in 2017, which will stretch to the end of the century
and beyond. Projected increases in deep water and non-conventional oil, which are
‘rate-constrained’ in ways that conventional oil is not, will not change this pattern.
Importantly, these forecasts assume that world oil production is not constrained in the
near term by reduced demand arising from lower world economic growth. Depending
on the length of time before a return to more normal levels of world economic growth
and resulting higher demand for oil, the dropoff is likely to be delayed.


Jake Maverick said…
sounds like we best start securing those oil supplies then, it's a national security issue..... why didn't UK or usa bother to re-negotiate those oil ocntracts in the md 90s...? what were they planning....?

now all we need is some big epidemic/ cull world's population by at least 60% (especially in those 'developing countries', that dnt have a 'health service') to make that demand doesn't outstrip supply.....
probably wd also be a good idea to start chipping the surviving/ western populations at the same time you 'innoculate' them....

sounds like a movie, doesn't it? at least as plausible as buildings collapsing into their own footprints and buildings next door suddenly collapsing to when a missile hits them i suppose.....

you getting maasses of my time tonight John, do hope u feel priveleged.....

Popular posts from this blog

Homelessness vs Selling Books

Candidates in elections tend to find themselves very busy with lots of things to do.  It is, therefore, necessary to prioritise things to ensure that the important things are dealt with.

To me the issue of homelessness and rough sleeping is an important issue.  Therefore, when Birmingham's Faith Leaders group contacted me to ask me what I would propose and whether I would work with them to make things better I was pleased to respond with my views and indicate that I would work with them after the election.

The Faith Leaders Group (Bishops and other religious leaders in Birmingham) have now sent out their report.

Sadly, according to their report,  I was the only candidate for Yardley to respond.  The group in their report said:

"Particularly disappointing was the lack of response from some of those candidates seeking re-election as MP for their respective constituencies."
It is worth looking at the priorities of my opponent.
Interestingly today she has decided to be at th…

Millionaires and politics

The Labour Party spent most of the last election criticising me for being a successful businessman (aka millionaire). That is business in the private sector employing over 250 people. It is worth looking at the situation for the Labour Candidate now:

For the year 2016-7 Annual Income from Parliament74,962Specifically for her book51,250Other media income etc5,322.82Total declared income131,534.82

Traditionally anyone with an annual income of over £100,000 has been considered to be a millionaire. I did not use my position in parliament to increase my income.

I have been asked for sources for this. This BBC piece looks at how one should define rich. It was written in 2011 so the figures will be slightly out of date. There are perhaps 2 relevant pieces:
"In 1880 a rich person would have had £100,000 in assets or an income of £10,000 a year, he says. About a hundred people a year died leaving £100,000 and by 1910 this was 250 - "a microscopic fraction of the number of death…

The Labour Candidate's Book Promotion Tour and Why It Matters

In the 2015 General Election the Labour Candidate criticised John Hemming for having an external interest and made a pledge that she would be a "Full Time MP for Yardley and my only other job will be mom & carer ...".  Here is a copy of that pledge:

Since that point she has been working on paid Television Programmes and has also written a book. John Hemming has made no secret of the fact that he chairs the board of the company he founded in 1983. This involves one meeting a month. When he was the MP for Yardley he was a full time MP and the Job of being MP for Yardley came first. The Labour candidate has reported 1,274 hours of work other than being an MP in the two years she has been elected and her income in the last year was over £131,000.

Ignoring the question as to how she reconciles that with her "pledge" the question is raised as to what extent her external activity conflicts with the role of Member of Parliament for Yardley. She is supposed to de…