John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Thursday, February 19, 2009
  Peak Oil (Demand) Article
The link is to a story that suggests that global demand for oil has peaked and that the price/demand linkage will keep demand below 88mbd in the future.

The point being that industry won't invest because of price and as a consequence we will get reductions in supply and as a consequence increases in price and reductions in demand.

I think this quote is OTT
Randy Ollenberger, managing director of oil and gas research at BMO Capital Markets, said global oil supply could decline by as much as 20 million barrels a day over the next three years if the oil industry stops investing new capital, whether by building new projects or sustaining existing ones, because oil prices are too low. This would dwarf a decline in demand of about 2.25 million barrels a day over the same period.
It is important to remember that this would be a supply reduction of over 20%.

I don't believe this forecast. I think he doesn't as well because he expects the price to go up.

Normal depletion rates for a field are about 6-8%. Some new fields are coming online and not all fields have peaked. If all fields had peaked then he would be more likely to be right.
 
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