Skip to main content

Treasury Economic Model

My research team has been rummaging around the Treasury Economic Model. It is an interesting model based upon some Fortran routines which look at about 600 variables based upon quarterly calculations.

Variables I am particularly interested in are
  • 0411 EOIL - Offshore Oil and Gas Employment
  • 0801 TDOIL Total Domestic Demand for oil
  • 0802 NSGVA - GVA in North Sea oil & gas extraction
  • 0803 XOIL - Exports of oil (volume)
  • 0804 PXOIL -AVI for exports of oil Index
  • 0805 MOIL - Imports of crude oil and oil products
  • 0806 PMOIL - AVI for imports of oil Index
  • 0807 NSGTP - North Sea Gross Trading Profits
  • 0809 PBRENT - Brent crude oil price ($ per barrel)
  • 1014 TXFUEL - Hydrocarbon oils duty receipts


Alan Greenspan did say that pure economic theory ignores the price of oil (and availability). It is nice to see that the Treasury does not.

I haven't as yet got the right instructions on how to run the model although I have also got another model from someone else, but I will give it a few runthroughs on the basis of certain reasonable assumptions once I have.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Why are babies born young?

Why are babies born young? This sounds like an odd question. People would say "of course babies are born young". However, this goes to the core of the question of human (or animal) development. Why is it that as time passes people develop initially through puberty and then for women through menopause and more generally getting diseases such as sarcopenia, osteoporosis, diabetes and cancer, but most of the time babies start showing no signs of this. Lots of research into this has happened over the years and now I think it is clear why this is. It raises some interesting questions. Biological youth is about how well a cell functions. Cells that are old in a biological sense don't work that well. One of the ways in which cells stop working is they fail to produce the full range of proteins. Generally the proteins that are produced from longer genes stop being produced. The reason for this relates to how the Genes work (the Genome). Because the genome is not gettin