John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Thursday, March 05, 2015
  Greece and Austerity
This is an interesting article that looks at the question as to what extent Greece was inherently a financial disaster waiting to happen.

It summarises as: "Greece never had the productive structure to be as rich as it was: its income was inflated by borrowings that weren’t used to upgrade its productive capacity."

There is a difficulty with macroeconomic theories that ignore the nature of the economy and the extent to which it is shored up by unsustainable public spending.

Once you take out that which is unsustainable you then see that which left is far less substantial.  Another useful extract is: "Until 2014, the country did not pay, in net terms, a single euro in interest: it borrowed enough from official sources at subsidized rates to pay 100% of its interest bill and then some. "

It is, however, only a question as to how big the problem has become by the time that the nature of the new clothes of the emperor has been finally determined 

What I find sad is how little use is made of quantitative models when debating potential economic approaches.  The models may not be perfect, but they at least give some indication of potential consequences.




 
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