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Greece and the EU

It is not that easy to predict what will happen with Greece. The arguments of the Greek government are absurd. They cannot revisit the Second World War when the country agreed a settlement many years ago. The argument about profits on Greek bonds is a nonsense given the amount that has already been written off. Now we have, "if we go it falls apart".

If they renege on their contractual commitments "if falls apart".  Which is why the other EU countries won't just let them off their treaty obligations.

My personal view is that the elected representatives for Syriza are not going to compromise enough and will push it to the limits.  That is likely to lead to Greece being in default and short of cash.  In the end this is actually enough to drive them out of the EU.  They are unlikely to agree to enforce any ECJ judgments in respect of paying debt.  Hence I think they are on the way out of the EU itself - not just the Eurozone.

The fact that they have started with arguments that hold no water at all does lead to the conclusion that Grexit is the end game.  However, nothing is certain.  The difficulty with Grexit is that no-one would be enthusiastic about "new drachmas" with Syriza in charge.

Not a good situation.





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