John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Thursday, November 15, 2012
  Peak Oil - the IMF and the IEA
I have just started reading the World Energy Outlook 2012. It will take some effort to properly review this, but it is an interesting document. Followers of my comments will have noted that oil demand by the OECD peaked somewhere between 2005 and 2008. It depends whether you look quarterly or monthly or even daily (and those figures would be hard to get in a reliable sense). However, in terms of millions of barrells of oil per day old demand is about 10% less than it was.

The first interesting thing about the WEO is that with the "new policies" scenario that is their key scenario in fact oil consumption continues to go down from 2020 to 2035 (in the OECD). On a 5 yearly basis the USA's consumption is shown as peaking in 2010. (page 564) OECD Europe oddly enough has its highest figures marginally in 1990, but that is only because 2000 is missed out. I think again the peak for Europe (OECD) would be somewhere in 2005-8.

The other interesting element is looking at the need for water. This is acute in Iraq where they would need water to inject into the oil fields.

The other interesting report is the one which is an unofficial report from the IMF. That looks at the possible outcomes from peak oil.

All in all there seems to be a very gradual convergence between the "peak oilers" and the official bodies.

This is on page 81:
Oil production, net of processing gains, is projected to rise from 84 mb/d in 2011 to 97 mb/d in 2035, the increase coming entirely from natural gas liquids and unconventional sources. Output of crude oil (excluding light tight oil) fluctuates between 65 mb/d and 69 mb/d, never quite reaching the historic peak of 70 mb/d in 2008 and falling by 3 mb/d between 2011 and 2035. Light tight oil production grows above 4 mb/d in the 2020s, mainly from the United States and Canada.

 
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