John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Friday, March 16, 2007
  Peak Oil predictions converge
The current prediction from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil is for all liquids to peak in 2011. This is coming closer to the IEA's one model of 2015. The IEA's normally quoted 2030 figure relies on assumptions that are not proven.

Gas is also expected to peak at around 2011. It is entirely rational to expect the predictions from the "optimists" and "pessimists" to converge as they all depend upon uncertainties that turn gradually into certainties.

It seems clearer that the conventional oil peak was in 2005. This was the source of oil that traditional predictions related to. Obviously there is deepwater oil (the main source pushing out the peak) and other sources. However, there is not that much of that source and it is also harder to extract.

The link is to the ASPO site where the newsletters are. The most recent newsletter
is number 75.
 
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