John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Saturday, October 14, 2006
  Has Conventional Oil Production Peaked?
Notwithstanding all the complications of oil production (such as problems at Prudhoe Bay, foolish invasions of oil rich countries etc) there will come a point at which Oil Production will peak. This will be preceeded by Conventional Oil Production peaking. The link is to some work on my main reference website sourced from the EIA by Mike Pepler. This indicates that Conventional Oil Production (ignoring deepwater and that from gas production) may have peaked).

ASPO newsletter No 70 is out now and includes the following:
Discovery so far in 2006
The Offshore Journal has collected information on discoveries this year through June. They amount to the following:
In less than 500m water depth : 25 discoveries totalling 0.87 Gb of oil and 6.8 Tcf of gas
In 500-1500m of water : 8 discoveries totalling 0.75 Gb and 0.93 Tcf of gas
In more than 1500m of water : 7 discoveries totalling 1.6 Gb of oil and 2 Tcf of gas
So, the total amounts to 3.2 Gb of oil and 9.7 Tcf of gas of which only 1.6 Gb qualifies as Regular Conventional Oil.

Discovery continues to run far below consumption, with the shortfall in gas being
particularly noteworthy.

An large earlier discovery by Chevron, known as the Jack Field, lying at a depth of over 28 000 feet under 7000 feet of water in the Gulf of Mexico, has been announced. It represents a remarkable technological achievement but at the same time reflects the extreme desperation of the industry, evidently having little easier left to test. This achievement contrasts with BP’s experience at Thunder Horse field in the
Gulf of Mexico, where the wellhead manifold failed under pressure testing, delaying the development by more than a year.


Remember that the world uses about 24Gb of oil per year.
 
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