John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Monday, April 06, 2015
  Statistics on Social Housing Builds
This is from Table 241 from DCLG. Social Housing is important. For example families with disabled children cannot get adaptations to private rented property.
Average number of completed properties.

periodprivateregistered social landlordcouncil
1980-1997 (Conservative)159,49521,95324,415
1998-2010 (Labour)161,06824,800487
2011-2013 (Coalition)108,47330,2432,563

On average the coalition built over 5 times the number of council houses compared to Labour and over 5,000 more social houses in total per year.
Year RSL LA Total
1980 21480 88530 110010
1981 19700 68330 88030
1982 13740 40090 53830
1983 16820 39170 55990
1984 17290 37570 54860
1985 13650 30420 44070
1986 13160 25380 38540
1987 13150 21830 34980
1988 13490 21450 34940
1989 14600 19320 33920
1990 17930 17710 35640
1991 20820 11060 31880
1992 26500 5660 32160
1993 35910 3360 39270
1994 36860 2880 39740
1995 38760 3430 42190
1996 32950 1740 34690
1997 28340 1540 29880
1998 24100 1100 25200
1999 23730 330 24060
2000 21990 280 22270
2001 21080 360 21440
2002 18940 250 19190
2003 17620 250 17870
2004 20660 130 20790
2005 23490 230 23720
2006 26000 290 26290
2007 27660 280 27940
2008 32230 630 32860
2009 35050 840 35890
2010 29860 1360 31220
2011 32260 3100 35360
2012 31430 2510 33940
2013 27040 2080 29120
 
Saturday, April 04, 2015
  Why Jess Phillips is wrong to encourage benefits Tourism
One of the threads of the General Election debate both in Yardley and nationally is what is happening to the more vulnerable people in society.

All the vaguely rational parties (and I include part of the Labour Party in this) accept that we need to get government finances under control. The government has income (from taxes and levies etc) and spends money on services (the NHS, police etc). As it stands when the expenditure exceeds the income we have a deficit that needs to be borrowed each year. The government sells fixed term bonds which pay interest each year and then after a number of years the government pays back the capital. Each year also the government has to reborrow some money to pay of the bonds that mature in each year. If the government has a surplus (after paying interest) it can reduce the amount of debt by issuing less debt than it pays off.

The government has been benefiting from being able to reissue debt at a lower interest rate.  This has reduced the deficit an element without cutting spending or increasing tax.  It is, however, important to note that it is the interest rate when issuing debt that matters and only the debt issued at that rate has interest at that rate.  It is not like a mortgage where the interest on the debt can be changed by the creditor.

The interest rate for issuing debt is affected by a number of factors.  These include perceptions of inflation, the interest rate available from other source (bank deposits, other bonds) and of course the estimate as to how likely it is that the debt will be repaid.   As it appears less certain the debt will be repaid then the interest rate required by the creditor increases - not necessarily in an entirely rational manner, but it does.

Government debt is sometimes called sovereign debt and you can see the current rates on 10 year sovereign debt for a range of countries here. For the Eurozone countries it is particularly interesting as the factors other than risk of non-payment are otherwise essentially the same. At the time of writing the Germans have a rate of 0.2% and the Greeks 11.91%.

"The Markets" can be harsh on governments as what this really means is a lot of people who understand finance making estimates as to whether the government is competent and truthful. A government that intends to pay its debt, but has policies that mean it is unlikely to be able to do so (eg the Greeks) therefore gets punished by "the markets". It is worth noting, however, that a lot of Greeks who have money are taking it out of their country because they don't trust their own government. (Including Greek MPs with large sums of cash in Euros) It is, therefore, not surprising that other people don't necesarily trust the Greek government.

According to Wikipedia The UK as of Q4 2014 had a total debt amount of £1,510,000,000,000 and it costs £43,000,000,000 each year in interest. That is an interest rate of 2.85% and with an estimated population of 64.1 million it is a debt of £24,000 per person (including babies) and interest of £670 per year. Unlike student finance this has to be paid back.  It is real debt.  (student finance is only paid if people earn enough).  The current UK 10 year rate is 1.59% so there is a bit of room for reducing the interest.

If there is a perception that the UK is less certain to pay back the debt (note that anyone who refers to "pay back the deficit" does not understand what a deficit is) then higher interest rates will be charged.  If, for example, we were paying 10% interest it would be £151bn per annum. (once it had worked through).  Very quickly a country in that position  (with interest rates that are much higher) finds itself unable to cope and needs someone else to underwrite the debt (bail it out).  The IMF is one of the bodies that does this.  The IMF generally comes across as unpopular because it requires countries that borrow money from it to do unpopular things, but if the money was not available from the IMF then the countries would run out of money (as Greece may now do although the arrangements with the Eurozone are more complex).

It is, however, far better for a country to control its own finances and not require a bail-out rather than to fail to control its finances and then have a bail out.  That way it has a good reputation with "the markets" and can borrow money at a lower rate.

Hence it is ludicrous to not be worried about balancing the government books.   If governments have to pay more interest to the markets then they either can do less for their populations or have to raise more tax.  There is no benefit to the government or the people more generally to mess up government finances.

The underlying problem is that government policies need to be looked at from two perspectives.  One is from the impact on people.  The other is the total cost.   We cannot just spend money as if it grows on trees.  Many parties and policians ignore the total cost issue or try to solve it by waving their hands around and claiming that something will turn up.  There is some truth (but not enough for it to generally be worthwhile), for example, in the argument that government spending increases economic activity and that increase in economic activity itself reduces the deficit.  However, you cannot pull yourself up by your boot straps and the reduction in the deficit from the effect of the spending is rarely as much as the increase as a result of the spending.  (The exception is a question of avoiding economic disruption where temporary support can help.)

Welfare, whether it be pensions, means tested benefits, in work benefits, disability benefits or other benefits is important to the people who receive it.  However, the total cost has to be controlled in some way.   Although we have the AME Welfare Cap, much welfare is not cash limited per se.  We do need to respond when people encounter difficult situations and when there is a downturn we should not see people starve because a cash limit has been encountered and there is no more money available.   The IPPR have proposed changes that Labour appear to support of cash limiting Housing Benefit.  This is dangerous for the tenants who depend upon it as they could end up a lot worse off.

The Labour Party's campaign in Yardley is based upon criticising me because I am a successful businessman.   They argue that my concern about balancing the books conflicts with caring for the vulnerable.  I disagree.  If we do not balance the books we end up not having the money to care for the vulnerable.

One area of policy that is relevant to this is the Habitual Residency Rule.  As it stands someone who comes to the UK does not immediately qualify for means tested benefits.  This is because previously people used to wander around Europe funded by means tested benefits. (known as Benefits Tourism)   I do not think it is helpful to have people moving from place to place because they can get more benefits.  Moving because you can get a job is one thing, but moving because you can get more benefits means that pressure is put on public spending where people move to.

Jess Phillips has explained on a video how she was encouraging people to move from Sandwell to Birmingham to get more benefits.  She has also made it clear that there should be a number of formal exemptions from the Habitual Residency Rule.  It may sound harsh, but if there is someone in France who has a problem my view is that the French should resolve that problem.  We should not change our benefits system so they can come to Birmingham for us to solve the problem and cause us a financial problem.  France is a big country and we should not be trying to resolve their problems.   Cllr Phillips is wrong to wish to increase the amount of Benefit Tourism.

It is true if we have a Habitual Residency Rule then some people who come to the UK find that they are destitute.  They then end up potentially going to a foodbank.  However, if we abolish the habitual residency rule then we lose control of the costs - and as I said earlier the government loses control of the finance or has to make other cuts.   We should not be trying to solve all the problems all around the world.  We should make sure that we concentrate on solving the problems in the UK.

There are similar problems with Tax Credits. I have I think now persuaded the government to act on this, but I saw no benefit in encouraging people to come to this country to sell "The Big Issue". This has been happening so that people can get tax credits and get around the rules on freedom of movement by qualifying as self employed. The same thing has happened with a number of scrap metal businesses. Again this does not benefit wider society and should not happen.

I support the foodbanks.  I have been working with the Trussell Trust to try to fix the problems where people who should be supported by the state end up at a foodbank.  However, we cannot change the law to enable everyone who turns up to have benefits and thereby stop destitution as that would break our own finances.    There are problems with a number of sanctions that have been wrongly imposed, but the Habitual Residency Rule should stay.







 
  Videos of Candidates
I had hoped that there would be a video recording of the Hustings at South Yardley Library, but sadly although there were people who said they wanted to do it. It did not happen. However, there was a video recording of the short presentation of the four candidates who went to the Birmingham Mail Twitter Hustings.

I have extracted those comments for the four candidates.
Jess Phillips

Teval Stephens

Grant Bishop

Me

Current Odds
 
Wednesday, April 01, 2015
  The background behind Labour's leaflets in Yardley
The thing that most irritates me about Labour's leaflets is the rubbish about subsistence. As I made clear on this blog earlier I stopped claiming subsistence in April 2009 - as my contribution to reducing the deficit. However, the local Labour MPs did not stop claiming subsistence. Furthermore Jess Phillips has not been obvious in her absence from the annual council dinner. So we are paying for her dinner, we are paying for Roger Godsiff and Liam Byrne's dinner, but I am paying for my dinner myself.

Her second main attack is on me being a successful businessman. For some reason she believes that 67,000 is an ordinary wage that keeps people in touch. I think Eamonn Flynn understands this issue better with his Dave Nellist style approach. A 67,000 income is not an ordinary income. Jess Phillips, in any event, declares three jobs from which she earns money, the Sandwell Job, The Job as Longbridge Councillor and the Job with Jack Dromey. She has not yet explained what that job is.
I am not just more cost effective than any other Birmingham MP. I also subsidise my office from my own resources. For example I pay for a specialist benefits advisor and have taken legal action to force the council to clean up the streets.

There are interesting other questions as to how misleading her leaflets are.

There is a very nice picture of Kingstanding resident Avril Child on the Labour newspaper. The newspaper is headed "People need someone who will deliver here". The question, of course, is where "here" is. Avril Child clearly appears to be indirectly criticising her Local MP in the quote which says "do everything you can when others can't or won't. However, her local MP was Jack Dromey. I wonder if this was something that Jess Phillips was doing as part of her third job for Jack Dromey. Here is the page in the leaflet.
The same confusion as to where Yardley actually is appears in another of Jess's leaflets.
This is a nice photo of a street party in Westfield Road.
There is a Westfield Road in Acocks Green and the leaflet does not make it clear where Westfield Road is. It happens to be, however, that this is Westfield Road in Kings Heath.
Still it looks a nice street party from 2010.
(Update 4/4/15) - additional image The same approach is used in the newspaper. Note the phrases "working for you where you live" (used twice) (Its in Kings Heath), "Working hard to improve the local area" (ie Kings Heath), "I know that improving our local area matters as much." (The photo is of a party in Kings Heath).


(update 7/4/15)Presented with that argument Labour Cllr John O Shea tried to claim that the leaflet specifically stated that not all of the photos were in Yardley. Sadly for Labour he was wrong as well.

(update 6/4/15) Interestingly the street party was funded by a grant of £530 from the Lib Dem Controlled ward committee in Moseley and Kings Heath.  Labour have now scrapped the budget so such events could not be funded in the future (end of update). Still it looks a nice street party from 2010.

Talking about 2010. Here is a photograph of some gates that were erected in 2010. Jess Phillips, of course, was not on the scene in Yardley in 2010.

Here is a photograph of Cllr Phillips in front of some gates.

The caption is "sorting out gates to keep people safe." Interestingly it is in front of a plot of land which belongs to a local resident who is unhappy that she is trying to get gates erected on the other end of his land that he does not want. It was also the site of some damage done to plants on the land again without his permission which may have damaged hedgehog habitats. Labour have claimed in their leaflets to have been doing this sort of thing. The police are currently trying to find out who was responsible. I believe Labour have denied attacking the hedgehogs.

Otherwise Labour's leaflets are ordinarily misleading in the way that is normally seen. For example they campaign against "privatising the NHS" when they actually started outsourcing/privatisation and they are not proposing to stop it.

Similarly they complain about cuts when they plan on making more cuts. It is unclear whether Jess Phillips wants to align herself with the Syriza style faction of the Labour party who wish to oppose all cuts. To be fair Eamonn Flynn or the Greens fall into that category.

Additionally as is made clear here tax (including indirect tax) has gone up on the top decile by expenditure, but down in other deciles. More tax on the wealthy not less tax.
On the question of "spending power per dwelling" in Birmingham for 15-16 that is £2,549.03 and in Solihull it is £1,862.08. Birmingham has 37% more per dwelling than Solihull. Birmingham gets £1,850.40 from central government and £608.63 from council tax. Solihull gets £929.22 from central government and £932.86 from council tax. Although central funding has gone down by around £250 for Birmingham and £100 for solihull, the funding for health and social care, council tax freeze and new homes has gone up. That leaves a net movement of -141.15 and 5.48. There is an issue where I have agreed common ground with the council leadership which is that authorities which are more dependent on central government finance are affected moreso by austerity. The LGA, however, needs to agree a common position on this. Div.

I must admit, however, that I am surprised that the Labour party now believe that Kings Heath and Kingstanding are in Yardley. Or perhaps they don't and are intentionally trying to mislead the voters in Yardley.
 
  Discretionary Housing Payments and Article 14 ECHR
This story in today's Birmingham Mail is proof that there is a justiciable right under ECHR Article 14 for Discretionary Housing Payments.

I have said for some time that the law would require this. It is good to have the confirmation.
 
  Firefighters Pensions letter from Penny Mordaunt



It is crucial that the government stick by the commitment given during the debate earlier this year. I will work to ensure this happens.
 

Click Here for access to higher resolution versions of the photos The license for use allows use of the photos by media as long as they are attributed.

better brent chart

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